IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sru/ssewps/2021-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Artificial Intelligence’s New Clothes? From General Purpose Technology to Large Technical System

Author

Listed:
  • Simone Vannuccini

    (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School, University of Sussex)

  • Ekaterina Prytkova

    (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Department of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been quickly labelled a General Purpose Technology (GPT) for its many uses and the high expectations built around a technology that can perform tasks associated with natural intelligence. However, for now, the claim “AI equals GPT" is premature, and eventually, taking into account potential future scenarios, it can turn out to be incorrect. In fact, though every GPT is an influential technology, not every influential technology is a GPT. Checking AI against the definitional criteria of GPT, we come to the conclusion that GPT is a misspecified model of AI: what was meant to be a concept for an individual technology in this case is stretched to cover a growing infrastructural, system technology. For example, the pervasiveness featured in the GPT concept seems to be qualitatively different from the largeness that modern AI demonstrates. In this paper, we suggest an alternative framework drawn from the literature on Large Technical Systems (LTS) as more fit to represent the nature of AI. We map the building blocks of LTS on AI and describe its state-of-the-art through this novel viewpoint. This is a timely exercise, as we witness the formation of an AI industry. A correct understanding of its core technology is needed to identify mechanisms at work, problems in place and eventually the dynamics of this new industry. The LTS framework offers a broader grasp of the infrastructural nature of AI as a technology, with more convenient categories to describe AI and measures to test empirically. We investigate how the implications of AI being an LTS entail the design of adequate public policies and firm strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Vannuccini & Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "Artificial Intelligence’s New Clothes? From General Purpose Technology to Large Technical System," SPRU Working Paper Series 2021-02, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:sru:ssewps:2021-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sussex.ac.uk/business-school/documents/2021-02-swps-prytkova-and-vannuccini.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2021. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 333-372, January.
    2. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995. "General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January.
    3. Paula Kivimaa & Karoline S. Rogge, 2020. "Interplay of Policy Experimentation and Institutional Change in Transformative Policy Mixes: The Case of Mobility as a Service in Finland," SPRU Working Paper Series 2020-17, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Grid Thoma, 2009. "Striving for a large market: evidence from a general purpose technology in action," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 18(1), pages 107-138, February.
    5. Avi Goldfarb & Catherine Tucker, 2019. "Digital Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 3-43, March.
    6. Stuart J. H. Graham & Maurizio Iacopetta, 2014. "Nanotechnology and the Emergence of a General Purpose Technology," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 115-116, pages 25-55.
    7. Paola Tubaro & Antonio A. Casilli & Marion Coville, 2020. "The trainer, the verifier, the imitator: Three ways in which human platform workers support artificial intelligence," Post-Print hal-02554196, HAL.
    8. Richard N. Langlois & W. Edward Steinmueller, 2000. "Strategy and circumstance: the response of American firms to Japanese competition in semiconductors, 1980–1995," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(10‐11), pages 1163-1173, October.
    9. Tommaso Ciarli & Karolina Safarzynska, 2020. "Sustainability and Industrial Challenge: The Hindering Role of Complexity," SPRU Working Paper Series 2020-18, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Timothy Simcoe & Jeremy Watson, 2019. "Forking, Fragmentation, and Splintering," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 283-297, December.
    11. Cristiano Antonelli & Dominique Foray & Bronwyn H. Hall & W. Edward Steinmueller (ed.), 2006. "New Frontiers in the Economics of Innovation and New Technology," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3286.
    12. Kreuchauff, Florian & Teichert, Nina, 2014. "Nanotechnology as general purpose technology," Working Paper Series in Economics 53, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    13. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Mazzucato, Mariana, 2019. "The evolution of mission-oriented policies: Exploring changing market creating policies in the US and European space sector," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 936-948.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies," NBER Working Papers 28257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Charles I. Jones & Christopher Tonetti, 2020. "Nonrivalry and the Economics of Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2819-2858, September.
    16. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1963. "Technological Change in the Machine Tool Industry, 1840–1910," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 414-443, December.
    17. Jovanovic, Boyan & Rousseau, Peter L., 2005. "General Purpose Technologies," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1181-1224, Elsevier.
    18. Andrew W. Senior & Richard Evans & John Jumper & James Kirkpatrick & Laurent Sifre & Tim Green & Chongli Qin & Augustin Žídek & Alexander W. R. Nelson & Alex Bridgland & Hugo Penedones & Stig Petersen, 2020. "Improved protein structure prediction using potentials from deep learning," Nature, Nature, vol. 577(7792), pages 706-710, January.
    19. Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2018. "AI as the next GPT: a Political-Economy Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 12721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Edmond Awad & Sohan Dsouza & Richard Kim & Jonathan Schulz & Joseph Henrich & Azim Shariff & Jean-François Bonnefon & Iyad Rahwan, 2018. "The Moral Machine experiment," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7729), pages 59-64, November.
    21. Carlota Perez, 2010. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 185-202, January.
    22. Timothy Bresnahan & Pai-Ling Yin, 2010. "Reallocating innovative resources around growth bottlenecks," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(5), pages 1589-1627, October.
    23. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua S. Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2019. "Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 31-50, Spring.
    24. Ekaterina Prytkova & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "On the basis of brain: neural-network-inspired changes in general-purpose chips," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(4), pages 1031-1055.
    25. Dirk Bergemann & Alessandro Bonatti, 2019. "Markets for Information: An Introduction," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 85-107, August.
    26. Mokyr, Joel, 1990. "Punctuated Equilibria and Technological Progress," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 350-354, May.
    27. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number agra-1, March.
    28. Shane Greenstein, 2020. "The Basic Economics of Internet Infrastructure," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 192-214, Spring.
    29. Maria Savona, 2019. "The Value of Data:Towards a Framework to Redistribute It," SPRU Working Paper Series 2019-21, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    30. Béla Nagy & J Doyne Farmer & Quan M Bui & Jessika E Trancik, 2013. "Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-7, February.
    31. Paul Nightingale & Tim Brady & Andrew Davies & Jeremy Hall, 2003. "Capacity utilization revisited: software, control and the growth of large technical systems," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 12(3), pages 477-517, June.
    32. Takashi Inaba & Mariagrazia Squicciarini, 2017. "ICT: A new taxonomy based on the international patent classification," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2017/1, OECD Publishing.
    33. Davies, Andrew, 1996. "Innovation in Large Technical Systems: The Case of Telecommunications," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 5(4), pages 1143-1180.
    34. Maryann P. Feldman & Ji Woong Yoon, 2012. "An empirical test for general purpose technology: an examination of the Cohen--Boyer rDNA technology," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 21(2), pages 249-275, April.
    35. Clifford Bekar & Kenneth Carlaw & Richard Lipsey, 2018. "General purpose technologies in theory, application and controversy: a review," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1005-1033, December.
    36. Uwe Cantner & Simone Vannuccini, 2012. "A New View of General Purpose Technologies," Jena Economics Research Papers 2012-054, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    37. Sahal, Devendra, 1985. "Technological guideposts and innovation avenues," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 61-82, April.
    38. Markus Spiekermann, 2019. "Data Marketplaces: Trends and Monetisation of Data Goods," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 208-216, July.
    39. repec:adr:anecst:y:2014:i:115-116:p:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Schot, Johan & Steinmueller, W. Edward, 2018. "Three frames for innovation policy: R&D, systems of innovation and transformative change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(9), pages 1554-1567.
    41. Timothy F Bresnahan, 2019. "Technological change in ICT in light of ideas first learned about the machine tool industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 28(2), pages 331-349.
    42. Agrawal, Ajay & Gans, Joshua & Goldfarb, Avi (ed.), 2019. "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226613338, December.
    43. Steinmueller, W. Edward, 2010. "Economics of Technology Policy," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1181-1218, Elsevier.
    44. Rita Strohmaier & Marlies Schuetz & Simone Vannuccini, 2019. "A systemic perspective on socioeconomic transformation in the digital age," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 46(3), pages 361-378, September.
    45. Ajay Agrawal & John McHale & Alexander Oettl, 2018. "Finding Needles in Haystacks: Artificial Intelligence and Recombinant Growth," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 149-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Sean Cao & Wei Jiang & Baozhong Yang & Alan L. Zhang, 2020. "How to Talk When a Machine is Listening?: Corporate Disclosure in the Age of AI," NBER Working Papers 27950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1969. "The Direction of Technological Change: Inducement Mechanisms and Focusing Devices," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 1-24, Part I Oc.
    48. Strohmaier, R. & Rainer, A., 2016. "Studying general purpose technologies in a multi-sector framework: The case of ICT in Denmark," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 34-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bianchini, Stefano & Müller, Moritz & Pelletier, Pierre, 2022. "Artificial intelligence in science: An emerging general method of invention," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    2. Igna, Ioana & Venturini, Francesco, 2023. "The determinants of AI innovation across European firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    3. Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "ICT's Wide Web: a System-Level Analysis of ICT's Industrial Diffusion with Algorithmic Links," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Stefano Bianchini & Moritz Müller & Pierre Pelletier, 2022. "Artificial intelligence in science: An emerging general method of invention," Post-Print hal-03958025, HAL.
    5. Heikkilä, Jussi & Rissanen, Julius & Ali-Vehmas, Timo, 2023. "Coopetition, standardization and general purpose technologies: A framework and an application," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    6. Mario Benassi & Elena Grinza & Francesco Rentocchini & Laura Rondi, 2022. "Patenting in 4IR technologies and firm performance [Robots and jobs: evidence from US labor markets]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(1), pages 112-136.
    7. Matheus E. Leusin & Bjoern Jindra & Daniel S. Hain, 2021. "An evolutionary view on the emergence of Artificial Intelligence," Papers 2102.00233, arXiv.org.
    8. Nils Grashof & Alexander Kopka, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and radical innovation: an opportunity for all companies?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 771-797, August.
    9. Borsato, Andrea & Lorentz, André, 2023. "The Kaldor–Verdoorn law at the age of robots and AI," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(10).
    10. Andrea Borsato & Andre Lorentz, 2022. "Data Production and the coevolving AI trajectories: An attempted evolutionary model," Working Papers of BETA 2022-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    11. Rammer, Christian & Fernández, Gastón P. & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2022. "Artificial intelligence and industrial innovation: Evidence from German firm-level data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(7).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "ICT's Wide Web: a System-Level Analysis of ICT's Industrial Diffusion with Algorithmic Links," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    2. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    3. Kemeny, Tom & Petralia, Sergio & Storper, Michael, 2022. "Disruptive innovation and spatial inequality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115953, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Taalbi, Josef, 2017. "Origins and Pathways of Innovation in the Third Industrial Revolution: Sweden, 1950-2013," Lund Papers in Economic History 159, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    5. Josef Taalbi, 2019. "Origins and pathways of innovation in the third industrial revolution1," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 28(5), pages 1125-1148.
    6. Heikkilä, Jussi & Rissanen, Julius & Ali-Vehmas, Timo, 2023. "Coopetition, standardization and general purpose technologies: A framework and an application," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    7. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Fernández, Gastón P. & Rammer, Christian, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and firm-level productivity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 188-205.
    8. Cantner, Uwe & Vannuccini, Simone, 2021. "Pervasive technologies and industrial linkages: Modeling acquired purposes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 386-399.
    9. Yang, Chih-Hai, 2022. "How Artificial Intelligence Technology Affects Productivity and Employment: Firm-level Evidence from Taiwan," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(6).
    10. Clifford Bekar & Kenneth Carlaw & Richard Lipsey, 2018. "General purpose technologies in theory, application and controversy: a review," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1005-1033, December.
    11. RAITERI Emilio, 2015. "A time to nourish? Evaluating the impact of innovative public procurement on technological generality through patent data," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-05, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    12. Nils Grashof & Alexander Kopka, 2023. "Widening or closing the gap? The relationship between artificial intelligence, firm-level productivity and regional clusters," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2304, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    13. Raiteri, Emilio, 2018. "A time to nourish? Evaluating the impact of public procurement on technological generality through patent data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 936-952.
    14. Igna, Ioana & Venturini, Francesco, 2023. "The determinants of AI innovation across European firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    15. Korzinov, Vladimir & Savin, Ivan, 2018. "General Purpose Technologies as an emergent property," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 88-104.
    16. Iritié, B. G. Jean Jacques, 2017. "Innovation clusters effects on adoption of a general purpose technology under uncertainty," EconStor Preprints 180668, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Uwe Cantner & Simone Vannuccini, 2012. "A New View of General Purpose Technologies," Jena Economics Research Papers 2012-054, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    18. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    19. Duch-Brown, Néstor & Gomez-Herrera, Estrella & Mueller-Langer, Frank & Tolan, Songül, 2022. "Market power and artificial intelligence work on online labour markets," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    20. Kerstin Hotte & Taheya Tarannum & Vilhelm Verendel & Lauren Bennett, 2022. "Exploring Artificial Intelligence as a General Purpose Technology with Patent Data -- A Systematic Comparison of Four Classification Approaches," Papers 2204.10304, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    artificial intelligence; large technical system; general purpose technology; infrastructural technology;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sru:ssewps:2021-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: University of Sussex Business School Communications Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/spessuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.