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Forecasting using relative entropy

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
  2. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank.
  3. Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
  4. Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Davide Pettenuzzo & Aaron Smith, 2019. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic Tilting," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 559-586.
  5. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2017. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1068, September.
  6. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell, 2018. "UK regional nowcasting using a mixed frequency vector autoregressive model," Working Papers 1805, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  7. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
  8. Raffaella Giacomini, 2015. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 22-41, June.
  9. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
  10. Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 57-140, Elsevier.
  11. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global risk and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2628, European Central Bank.
  12. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  13. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
  14. Tamás Kiss & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2021. "Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices—You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, October.
  15. Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
  16. Lee Tae-Hwy & Wang He & Xi Zhou & Zhang Ru, 2023. "Density Forecast of Financial Returns Using Decomposition and Maximum Entropy," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 57-83, January.
  17. Ganics, Gergely & Odendahl, Florens, 2021. "Bayesian VAR forecasts, survey information, and structural change in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 971-999.
  18. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  19. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
  20. Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Working Paper Research 153, National Bank of Belgium.
  21. Taeyoung Doh, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  22. Haley, M. Ryan & McGee, M. Kevin, 2011. ""KLICing" there and back again: Portfolio selection using the empirical likelihood divergence and Hellinger distance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 341-352, March.
  23. Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
  24. Salois, Matthew & Moss, Charles, 2010. "An Information Approach to the Dynamics in Farm Income: Implications for Farmland Markets," MPRA Paper 26850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Peter Stephensen, 2016. "Logit Scaling: A General Method for Alignment in Microsimulation models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(3), pages 89-102.
  26. Junior Maih, 2010. "Conditional forecasts in DSGE models," Working Paper 2010/07, Norges Bank.
  27. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
  28. Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 614-628.
  30. Lee Tae-Hwy & Ullah Aman & Mao Millie Yi, 2021. "Maximum Entropy Analysis of Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model and Volatility," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
  31. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021. "Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
  32. Harrison, Richard & Taylor, Tim, 2012. "Non-rational expectations and the transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 448, Bank of England.
  33. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2021. "No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, August.
  34. Pär Österholm, 2009. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(2), pages 387-415, June.
  35. Andrew McKenna & Rhys Bidder, 2014. "Robust Stress Testing," 2014 Meeting Papers 853, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  36. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," Working Papers 22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  37. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Petrella, Ivan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2021. "Structural scenario analysis with SVARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 798-815.
  38. M. Ryan Haley & Todd B. Walker, 2010. "Alternative tilts for nonparametric option pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(10), pages 983-1006, October.
  39. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
  40. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  41. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
  42. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  43. Kupiec, Paul H., 2018. "On the accuracy of alternative approaches for calibrating bank stress test models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 132-146.
  44. Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
  45. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Gunter & Warne, Anders, 2007. "Conditional versus unconditional forecasting with the New Area-Wide Model of the euro area," MPRA Paper 76759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for time series models," Working Paper Series 2558, European Central Bank.
  47. Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  48. Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Paredes, Joan & Wolf, Elias, 2022. "Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach," Working Paper Series 2754, European Central Bank.
  49. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8, Bank for International Settlements.
  50. Kenneth Beauchemin & Saeed Zaman, 2011. "A medium scale forecasting model for monetary policy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1128, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  51. Ider, Gökhan & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kurcz, Frederik & Schumann, Ben, 2023. "The Energy-Price Channel of (European) Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277710, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  52. Ursel Baumann & David Lodge & Mirela S. Miescu, 2024. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 76-90, January.
  53. Baumeister, Christiane, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  54. Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
  55. Farooq Akram & Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management," Working Papers No 5/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  56. Andreas Tryphonides, 2018. "Tilting Approximate Models," Papers 1805.10869, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  57. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2009. "Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?," MPRA Paper 14387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. Chalabi, Yohan & Wuertz, Diethelm, 2012. "Portfolio optimization based on divergence measures," MPRA Paper 43332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Riccardo Costantini, 2014. "Bond Returns and Market Expectations," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 708-729.
  60. Ho, Paul, 2023. "Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 608-642.
  61. Andrew Blake & Haroon Mumtaz, 2015. "Applied Bayesian Econometrics for central bankers," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 36, April.
  62. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
  63. Bańbura, Marta & Brenna, Federica & Paredes, Joan & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2021. "Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: does it pay off?," Working Paper Series 2543, European Central Bank.
  64. Rhys M. Bidder & Raffaella Giacomini & Andrew McKenna, 2016. "Stress Testing with Misspecified Models," Working Paper Series 2016-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  65. Dieppe, Alistair & van Roye, Björn & Legrand, Romain, 2016. "The BEAR toolbox," Working Paper Series 1934, European Central Bank.
  66. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  67. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2014. "Theory-coherent forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 145-155.
  68. Smimou, K. & Bector, C.R. & Jacoby, G., 2007. "A subjective assessment of approximate probabilities with a portfolio application," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 134-160, June.
  69. Andrey Zubarev & Daniil Lomonosov & Konstantin Rybak, 2022. "Estimation of the Impact of Global Shocks on the Russian Economy and GDP Nowcasting Using a Factor Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(2), pages 49-78, June.
  70. Francesca Monti, 2010. "Combining Judgment and Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1641-1662, December.
  71. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27od5pb99881folvtfs8s3k16l is not listed on IDEAS
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