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E-Stabilty: Über die Lernbarkeit von rationalen Erwatungsgleichgewichten


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  • Henzel, Steffen
  • Mayer, Eric
  • Schimpfermann, Bodo


Dieses vorläufige Papier beinhaltet keinerlei neuen Erkenntnisse, sondern fasst lediglich einige zentrale Aspekte der makroökonomischen Lerntheorie (siehe Evans, Honkajohja (2001)) knapp zusammen. Es wird der Frage nachgegangen ob rationale Erwartungsgleichgewichte lernbar sind. Lernen bedeutet in diesem Zusammenhang im Wesentlichen, dass die ökonomischen Agenten mit dem Eintreffen neuer Daten ihre Schätzungen über makroökonomische Strukturgleichungen revidieren. Ökonomische Agenten können also so beschrieben werden, als ob sie wie ein Ökonometriker neue Informationen verarbeiten. In diesem kleinen Beitrag wollen wir erörtern welche formalen Bedingungen für stabiles adaptives Lernen erfüllt sein müssen. -- This paper addresses the credit channel in Germany by using aggregate data. We present a stylized model of the banking firm, in which banks de-cide on their loan supply in the light of uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy. Applying a vector error correction model (VECM),we estimate the response of bank loans after a monetary policy shock in consideration of the reaction of the output level and the loan rate. Weestimate our model to characterize the response of bank loans by matching the theoretical impulse responses with the empirical impulse responses toa monetary policy shock. Evidence in support of the credit channel can be reported

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 55.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:55

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Keywords: MSV-Solution; Adaptive Learning; E-Stability;

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  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
  2. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  3. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
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