The complex regional effects of macro-institutional shocks: Evidence from EU economic integration over three decades

We use four subsequent EU enlargement waves over three decades (1980s, 1990s, 2000s) to assess the regional effects of macro-institutional changes. Our focus is set on EU internal border regions which are specifically exposed to international integration, but it remains unclear how they benefit from this exposure. Treatment effects for different outcomes (per capita GDP, labor productivity, employment, population, night light emissions) are estimated by comparing the performance of EU internal border regions to overall regional development trends in the EU. We find significant border effects that build up over time and decay with spatial distance to the enlargement border. While per capita GDP, labor productivity levels and night light emissions develop positively on average, negative effects are found for the employment rate in border regions. However, effects can be specific to enlargement waves and country groups considered: Border regions in established member countries mainly gain from EU enlargement in terms of increasing their GDP per capita and labor productivity levels but face lower employment rates and population decline. However, border regions in new member countries, particularly in 2004 and 2007, most significantly gain through population and employment increases. This complex pattern of effects makes a straight 'winner-loser' categorization difficult and poses challenges to policy support for EU border regions.