Journey into the unknown? Economic consequences of factor market integration under increasing returns to scale
AbstractWhat are the dynamic consequences of comprehensive integration shocks? The answer to this question appears all but trivial. We set up a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy where both capital and labor are mobile and there are increasing returns to scale at the aggregate level. The model features multiple equilibria as well as (local and global) indeterminacy. Hence, expectations matter for resulting equilibrium dynamics. Despite its simplicity, the model creates a rich set of plausible implications. Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of the interaction between expectations and fundamentals in models with indeterminacy. The model is applied to replicate two striking empirical characteristics of macroeconomic development in East Germany since 1991. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science in its series Working Papers with number 107.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Increasing returns to scale; Capital mobility; Migration; Multiple equilibria; Indeterminacy; History vs. expectations;
Other versions of this item:
- Steger, Thomas & Schäfer, Andreas, 2012. "Journey into the Unknown? Economic Consequences of Factor Market Integration under Increasing Returns to Scale," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62062, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Andreas Schäfer & Thomas Steger, 2011. "Journey into the Unknown? Economic Consequences of Factor Market Integration under Increasing Returns to Scale," CESifo Working Paper Series 3676, CESifo Group Munich.
- D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - General
- F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, December.
- Sebastian Vollmer & Hajo Holzmann & Florian Ketterer & Stephan Klasen, 2010.
"Distribution Dynamics of Regional GDP per Employee in Unifi ed Germany,"
Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers
55, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 26 Sep 2011.
- Sebastian Vollmer & Hajo Holzmann & Florian Ketterer & Stephan Klasen, 2013. "Distribution dynamics of regional GDP per employee in unified Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 491-509, April.
- Vollmer, Sebastian & Holzmann, Hajo & Ketterer, Florian & Klasen, Stephan, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Regional GDP per Employee in Unified Germany," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-461, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Crespo Jorge & Martín Carmela & Velázquez Francisco J, 2004. "The Role of International Technology Spillovers in the Economic Growth of the OECD Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-20, December.
- Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May.
- Bretschger, Lucas & Steger, Thomas, 2013.
"Globalization, The Volatility Of Intermediate Goods Prices, And Economic Growth,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 402-430, March.
- Thomas M. Steger & Lucas Bretschger, 2005. "Globalization, the volatility of intermediate goods prices and economic growth," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 05/40, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
- Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1988.
"Industrialization and the Big Push,"
NBER Working Papers
2708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1988.
"Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth,"
RCER Working Papers
130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Michael Funke & Holge Strulik, 1999. "Growth and Convergence in a Two-Region Model of Unified Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 206, CESifo Group Munich.
- Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2006.
"The Caring Hand that Cripples: The East German Labour Market after Reunification,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dennis J. Snower & Christian Merkl, 2006. "The Caring Hand that Cripples: The East German Labor Market after Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 375-382, May.
- Volker Grossmann & Thomas M. Steger & Timo Trimborn, 2012.
"The Macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL,"
DEGIT Conference Papers
c017_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Volker Grossmann & Thomas Steger & Timo Trimborn, 2011. "The Macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," CESifo Working Paper Series 3651, CESifo Group Munich.
- Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2011. "The Macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-482, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2011. "The macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," Working Papers 101, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
- Christine Sauer & Geng Li & Kishore Gawande, 2003. "Big push industrialization: some empirical evidence for East Asia and Eastern Europe," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(9), pages 1-7.
- Galor, Oded, 1996.
"Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-69, July.
- An, Galina & Iyigun, Murat F., 2004. "The export skill content, learning by exporting and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 29-34, July.
- Christophe Deissenberg, Gustav Feichtinger, Willi Semmler and Franz Wirl, 2001. "History Dependence and Global Dynamics in Models with Multiple Equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 257, Society for Computational Economics.
- Paul Romer, 1989.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2003:i:9:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
- Graham, Bryan S & Temple, Jonathan, 2001.
"Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much can Multiple Equilibria Explain?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3046, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bryan Graham & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much Can Multiple Equilibria Explain?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-41, 03.
- Bryan S. Graham & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2004. "Rich nations, poor nations: how much can multiple equilibria explain?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp017, IIIS.
- Graham, Bryan S. & Jonathan Temple, 2002. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How much can multiple equilibria explain?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 91, Royal Economic Society.
- Alberto Alesina & Sule Ozler & Nouriel Roubini & Phillip Swagel, 1992.
"Political Instability and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jati Sengupta & Kumiko Okamura, 1995. "History versus expectations: test of new growth theory," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(12), pages 491-494.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000.
"Germany's Economic Unification. An Assessment after Ten Years,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
247, CESifo Group Munich.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2002. "Germany's Economic Unification: An Assessment after Ten Years," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 113-28, February.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "Germany's Economic Unification: An Assessment after Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2002. "Germany’s Economic Unification: An Assessment after Ten Years," Munich Reprints in Economics 19643, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Romer, Paul M, 1986.
"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
- Dellas, Harris & de Vries, Casper G, 1995. "Piecemeal versus Precipitous Factor Market Integration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(3), pages 569-82, August.
- Reichlin, Pietro & Rustichini, Aldo, 1998. "Diverging patterns with endogenous labor migration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 703-728, May.
- Boltho, Andrea & Carlin, Wendy & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 1997.
"Will East Germany Become a New Mezzogiorno?,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 241-264, June.
- Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2008.
"China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2386, CESifo Group Munich.
- McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "China's exchange rate impasse and the weak U.S. dollar," Working Papers 73, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
- Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, 09.
- Toni Mora & Esther Vayá & Jordi Suri�Ach, 2004. "The Enlargement of the European Union and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(5), pages 6-35, September.
- Ben Gardiner & Ron Martin & Tyler Peter, 2004. "Competitiveness, Productivity and Economic Growth across the European Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa04p333, European Regional Science Association.
- Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
- Faini, Riccardo, 1996. "Increasing returns, migrations and convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 121-136, April.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Benabou, Roland, 1993. "History versus Expectations: A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(2), pages 535-42, May.
- Galor, Oded, 1992. "A Two-Sector Overlapping-Generations Model: A Global Characterization of the Dynamical System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1351-86, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.