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Germany's Economic Unification: An Assessment after Ten Years

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Author Info
Sinn, Hans-Werner

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Abstract

The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out-of-sample forecasts based on two-stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 113-28
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:113-28

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Henning Klodt, 1999. "Industrial Policy and the East German Productivity Puzzle," Kiel Working Papers 943, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Wolfgang Keller, 1997. "From Socialist Showcase to Mezzogiorno? Lessons on the Role of Technical Change from East Germany's Post-World War II Growth Performance," NBER Working Papers 6079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Boltho, Andrea & Carlin, Wendy & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 1996. "Will East Germany Become a New Mezzogiorno?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Franz, Wolfgang & Steiner, Viktor, 1999. "Wages in the East German transition process : facts and explanations," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-40, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Höhere Rentenanpassung in Ostdeutschland erforderlich?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(19), pages 20-24, October.
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  6. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1999. "EU Enlargement, Migration and Lessons from German Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 2174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1995. "Staggering along: wages policy and investment support in East Germany," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(4), pages 403-426, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen & Helga Hessenius, 1991. "East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-1), pages 1-106. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sebastián Claro, 2002. "On the Costs and Effectiveness of Tarjeting State Employment: Germany in the 1990s and China in the 2000s," Documentos de Trabajo 218, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  2. Erich Gundlach, 2003. "Growth Effects of EU Membership: The Case of East Germany," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 237-270, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Harald Uhlig, 2008. "The Slow Decline of East Germany," NBER Working Papers 14553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Stephen Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2005. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," CEP Discussion Papers dp0688, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Two Mezzogiornos," NBER Working Papers 8125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Sebastián Claro, 2005. "How Uncompetitive is the State-Owned Industrial Sector in China," Documentos de Trabajo 305, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sebastián Claro, 2004. "Vertical and Horizontal Dimensions of Trade Liberalization," Documentos de Trabajo 265, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  8. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Escaping the Unemployment Trap: The Case of East Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 3681, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Kilin F.S., 2003. "Analysis of convergence process of East German economy on the base of a two-region growth model," GE, Growth, Math methods 0304002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Dennis J. Snower & Christian Merkl, 2006. "The Caring Hand that Cripples: The East German Labor Market After Reunification (Detailed Version)," IZA Discussion Papers 2066, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Harald Uhlig, 2007. "Regional Labor Markets, Network Externalities and Migration: The Case of German Reunification," Kiel Working Papers 1311, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm & Steven Brakman, 2003. "The Spatial Distribution of Wages: Estimating the Helpman-Hanson model for Germany," Working Papers 03-08, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Komlos, John & Kriwy, Peter, 2003. "The Biological Standard of Living in the two Germanies," Discussion Papers in Economics 55, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Christian Merkl & Dennis J. Snower, 2007. "Escaping the Unemployment Trap — The Case of East Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1309, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  15. Harald Simons, 2007. "Transfers, non-tradable goods and a distorted economy in eastern Germany," FEMM Working Papers 07002, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
  16. Holger Strulik, 2004. "A Distributional Theory of Government Growth," Discussion Papers 04-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Ignacio Ortuño Ortín & Klaus Desmet, 2006. "Rational Underdevelopment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-12, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Frank Heiland, 2004. "Trends in East-West German Migration from 1989 to 2002," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(7), pages 173-194, September. [Downloadable!]
  19. Boldrin, Michele & Canova, Fabio, 2003. "Regional Policies and EU Enlargement," CEPR Discussion Papers 3744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2006. "The Caring Hand that Cripples: The East German Labour Market after Reunification," CEPR Discussion Papers 5656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Claudia M. Buch & Farid Toubal, 2007. "Openness and Growth: The Long Shadow of the Berlin Wall," IAW Discussion Papers 31, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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