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Stationäre Bevölkerungen: Anwendungsmöglichkeiten finanzmathematischer und demographischer Methoden zur Analyse des Einflusses von Wanderungen auf die langfristige Bevölkerungsentwicklung

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  • Pflaumer, Peter

Abstract

Finanzmathematische und demographische Methoden werden präsentiert, um den Einfluß von Wanderungen auf die langfristige Bevölkerungsentwicklung zu präsentieren. Finanzmathematische Methoden berücksichtigen nicht die Altersstruktur einer Bevölkerung und können daher nur als Approximation verwendet werden. Die Approximation ist um so genauer, je weniger die in Frage kommenden Altersstrukturen von denen der stabilen Bevölkerung abweichen. Im empirischen Teil werden quantitative bevölkerungspolitische Maßnahmen am Beispiel der Bevölkerung Deutschlands und der Weltbevölkerung beschrieben und analysiert. Das langfristige Ziel der quantitativen Bevölkerungspolitik lautet Nullwachstum. Während dieses Ziel in Entwicklungsländern im wesentlichen nur durch eine Reduzierung der Fertilität verwirklicht werden kann, ist es in Industrieländern, deren Fertilität unter dem Bestandserhaltungsniveau liegt, möglich, Stationarität der Bevölkerung durch Zuwanderung zu erreichen. Deutschland müßte unter den gemachten Annahmen zwischen 350.000 und 500.000 Zuwanderer pro Jahr aufnehmen, damit die Bevölkerung auf dem heutigen Stand bleibt. Zuwanderungen haben demographische Konsequenzen auf die Altersstruktur und die Zusammensetzung der Bevölkerung, die abschließend beschrieben werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Pflaumer, Peter, 1993. "Stationäre Bevölkerungen: Anwendungsmöglichkeiten finanzmathematischer und demographischer Methoden zur Analyse des Einflusses von Wanderungen auf die langfristige Bevölkerungsentwicklung," Discussion Papers, Series II 207, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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