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Population Aging and the Macroeconomy: Explorations in the Use of Immigration as an Instrument of Control

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

Simulation methods are employed to explore the effects of immigration as a control instrument to offset the economic and demographic consequences of low fertility rates and aging population distribution. A neoclassical economic growth model is coupled with a demographic projection model. The combined model is calibrated and used in a series of experiments. The experiments are designed to generate the time paths of a hypothetical but realistic economic-demographic system under alternative assumptions about immigration policy. The government seeks to optimize policy results in the model, according to a specified criterion function. The model is calibrated with Canadian data but some experiments are carried out using initial populations and fertility rates of other countries.

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File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep/p/qsep398.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports with number 398.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:398

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Keywords: immigration; macroeconomy; aging population; low fertility;

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  1. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
  2. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
  3. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1974. "Some Aspects of Economic Adjustments through Migration Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(336), pages 868-85, December.
  4. Zheng Wu & Nan Li, 2003. "Immigration and the dependency ratio of a host population," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 21-39.
  5. S. Mitra, 1990. "Immigration, below-replacement fertility, and long-term national population trends," Demography, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 121-129, February.
  6. S. Mitra, 1983. "Generalization of the immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 111-115, February.
  7. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1973. "A Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Population Change on a Neoclassical Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 356-75, Part I, M.
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