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Population Aging and the Macroeconomy: Explorations in the Use of Immigration as an Instrument of Control

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Author Info
Frank T. Denton
Byron G. Spencer

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Abstract

Simulation methods are employed to explore the effects of immigration as a control instrument to offset the economic and demographic consequences of low fertility rates and aging population distribution. A neoclassical economic growth model is coupled with a demographic projection model. The combined model is calibrated and used in a series of experiments. The experiments are designed to generate the time paths of a hypothetical but realistic economic-demographic system under alternative assumptions about immigration policy. The government seeks to optimize policy results in the model, according to a specified criterion function. The model is calibrated with Canadian data but some experiments are carried out using initial populations and fertility rates of other countries.

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File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep/p/qsep398.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports with number 398.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mcm:qseprr:398

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Related research
Keywords: immigration; macroeconomy; aging population; low fertility;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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  1. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1974. "Some Aspects of Economic Adjustments through Migration Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(336), pages 868-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1973. "A Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Population Change on a Neoclassical Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 356-75, Part I, M. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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