Realized beta: Persistence and predictability
AbstractA large literature over several decades reveals both extensive concern with the question of time-varying betas and an emerging consensus that betas are in fact time-varying, leading to the prominence of the conditional CAPM. Set against that background, we assess the dynamics in realized betas, vis-à-vis the dynamics in the underlying realized market variance and individual equity covariances with the market. Working in the recently-popularized framework of realized volatility, we are led to a framework of nonlinear fractional cointegration: although realized variances and covariances are very highly persistent and well approximated as fractionally-integrated, realized betas, which are simple nonlinear functions of those realized variances and covariances, are less persistent and arguably best modeled as stationary I(0) processes. We conclude by drawing implications for asset pricing and portfolio management. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2004/16.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: House of Finance, Grüneburgplatz 1, HPF H5, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/
More information through EDIRC
quadratic variation and covariation; realized volatility; asset pricing; CAPM; equity betas; long memory; nonlinear fractional cointegration; continuous-time methods;
Other versions of this item:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2000.
"Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators: Some New Theoretical, Simulation and Empirical Results,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2002. "Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators: Some New Theoretical, Simulation, and Empirical Results," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 363-76, July.
- Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Zhang, Benjamin Y. B., 2003. "Measuring and modeling systematic risk in factor pricing models using high-frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 533-558, December.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2004. "Realized Variance and IID Market Microstructure Noise," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 526, Econometric Society.
- Jose Fernandes & Augusto Hasman & Juan Ignacio Pena, 2007.
"Risk premium: insights over the threshold,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59.
- José L. B. Fernandes & Augusto Hasman & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2006. "Risk Premium: Insights Over The Threshold," Working Papers Series 126, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Jose L. B. Fernandes & Augusto Hasman & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2006. "Risk Premium: Insights Over The Threshold," Business Economics Working Papers wb062808, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
- David Berger & Alain Chaboud & Erik Hjalmarsson & Edward Howorka, 2006.
"What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
862, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Berger, David & Chaboud, Alain & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 192-213, November.
- Richard M. Levich & Valerio Poti, 2008. "Predictability and 'Good Deals' in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregory H. Bauer & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 07-20, Bank of Canada.
- Jonas Dovern, 2006. "Predicting GDP Components. Do Leading Indicators Increase Predictability?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Shapiro, A.F. & Terraza, M., 2014. "CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-57.
- Helmut Herwartz, 2006. "Econometric analysis of high frequency data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 89-104, March.
- Haselmann, Rainer & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008. "Portfolio performance and the Euro: Prospects for new potential EMU members," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 314-330, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.