Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Betting on death and capital markets in retirement: A shortfall risk analysis of life annuities versus phased withdrawal plans

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dus, Ivica
  • Maurer, Raimond H.
  • Mitchell, Olivia S.

Abstract

How might retirees consider deploying the retirement assets accumulated in a defined contribution pension plan? One possibility would be to purchase an immediate annuity. Another approach, called the “phased withdrawal” strategy in the literature, would have the retiree invest his funds and then withdraw some portion of the account annually. Using this second tactic, the withdrawal rate might be determined according to a fixed benefit level payable until the retiree dies or the funds run out, or it could be set using a variable formula, where the retiree withdraws funds according to a rule linked to life expectancy. Using a range of data consistent with the German experience, we evaluate several alternative designs for phased withdrawal strategies, allowing for endogenous asset allocation patterns, and also allowing the worker to make decisions both about when to retire and when to switch to an annuity. We show that one particular phased withdrawal rule is appealing since it offers relatively low expected shortfall risk, good expected payouts for the retiree during his life, and some bequest potential for the heirs. We also find that unisex mortality tables if used for annuity pricing can make women’s expected shortfalls higher, expected benefits higher, and bequests lower under a phased withdrawal program. Finally, we show that delayed annuitization can be appealing since it provides higher expected benefits with lower expected shortfalls, at the cost of somewhat lower anticipated bequests. --

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/25431/1/515146331.PDF
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2004/01.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200401

Contact details of provider:
Postal: House of Finance, Grüneburgplatz 1, HPF H5, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
Email:
Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Insurance; Pensions; Retirement and Retirement Policies; Social Security and Public Pensions;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Albrecht, Peter & Maurer, Raimond, 2002. "Self-Annuitization, Consumption Shortfall in Retirement and Asset Allocation: The Annuity Benchmark," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 269-288, November.
  2. Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba & Mark J. Warshawsky, . "New Evidence on the Money's Worth of Individual Annuities," Pension Research Council Working Papers 97-9, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2001. "Social Security," NBER Working Papers 8451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
  4. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Heiß, Florian & Winter, Joachim, 2000. "Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return," Discussion Papers 589, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  5. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova & Andrew Samwick, 2001. "The Transition to Investment-Based Social Security When Portfolio Returns and Capital Profitability Are Uncertain," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 41-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ho, Kwok & Milevsky, Moshe Arye & Robinson, Chris, 1994. "Asset allocation, life expectancy and shortfall," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 109-126.
  7. Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba & Mark J. Warshawsky, . "Taxing Retirement Income: Nonqualified Annuities and Distributions from Qualified Accounts," Pension Research Council Working Papers 99-3, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. David Blake & Andrew J. G. Cairns & Kevin Dowd, 2003. "Pensionmetrics 2: stochastic pension plan design during the distribution phase," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24830, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith, 1999. "Anticipated and Actual Bequests," NBER Working Papers 7380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Peter C. Fishburn, 1984. "Foundations of Risk Measurement. I. Risk As Probable Loss," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 396-406, April.
  11. Mitchell, Olivia S. & Smetters, Kent (ed.), 2003. "The Pension Challenge: Risk Transfers and Retirement Income Security," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199266913, September.
  12. Alicia H. Munnell & Annika Sunden & Mauricio Soto & Catherine Taylor, 2002. "How Will The Rise In 401(K) Plans Affect Bequests?," Issues in Brief ib-10, Center for Retirement Research.
  13. Canner, Niko & Mankiw, N Gregory & Weil, David N, 1997. "An Asset Allocation Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 181-91, March.
  14. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
  15. John Y. Campbell & Joao Cocco & Francisco Gomes & Pascal Maenhout & Luis Viceira, 2000. "Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1899, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  16. Albrecht, Peter & Maurer, Raimond, 2001. "Self-Annuitization, Ruin Risk in Retirement and Asset Allocation: The Annuity Benchmark," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-35, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  17. Brugiavini, Agar, 1993. "Uncertainty resolution and the timing of annuity purchases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 31-62, January.
  18. Dan J. Laughhunn & John W. Payne & Roy Crum, 1980. "Managerial Risk Preferences for Below-Target Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(12), pages 1238-1249, December.
  19. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Spivak, Avia, 1981. "The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 372-91, April.
  20. Jeffrey R. Brown & James M. Poterba, 1999. "Joint Life Annuities and Annuity Demand by Married Couples," NBER Working Papers 7199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Robert L. Winkler & Gary M. Roodman & Robert R. Britney, 1972. "The Determination of Partial Moments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 290-296, November.
  22. Milevsky, Moshe Arye & Ho, Kwok & Robinson, Chris, 1997. " Asset Allocation via the Conditional First Exit Time or How to Avoid Outliving Your Money," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-70, July.
  23. Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba, 2001. "The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds in an Individual Accounts Retirement Program," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 321-370 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Axel Börsch-Supan & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," MEA discussion paper series 03034, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  25. Sarin, Rakesh K. & Weber, Martin, 1993. "Risk-value models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 135-149, October.
  26. Vora, Premal P. & McGinnis, John D., 2000. "The asset allocation decision in retirement: lessons from dollar-cost averaging," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-63, 00.
  27. John F. Cogan & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003. "Perspectives from the President's Commission on Social Security Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 149-172, Spring.
  28. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
  29. Zvi Bodie, 2001. "Financial Engineering and Social Security Reform," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 291-320 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-26, March.
  31. Bawa, Vijay S., 1978. "Safety-First, Stochastic Dominance, and Optimal Portfolio Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 255-271, June.
  32. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Dowd, Kevin, 2001. "Pensionmetrics: stochastic pension plan design and value-at-risk during the accumulation phase," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-215, October.
  33. Axel H. Börsch-Supan & Christina B. Wilke, 2003. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," Working Papers wp041, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ivica Dus, 2006. "Optimizing the Retirement Portfolio: Asset Allocation, Annuitization, and Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 12392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sun Wei & Triest Robert K. & Webb Anthony, 2008. "Optimal Retirement Asset Decumulation Strategies: The Impact of Housing Wealth," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-29, September.
  3. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2007. "Money in motion: Dynamic portfolio choice in retirement," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/21, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Pang, Gaobo & Warshawsky, Mark, 2010. "Optimizing the equity-bond-annuity portfolio in retirement: The impact of uncertain health expenses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 198-209, February.
  5. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M. A. & Wang, J., 2004. "Ruined moments in your life: how good are the approximations?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 421-447, June.
  6. MacDonald, Bonnie-Jeanne & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2011. "Three retirement decision models for defined contribution pension plan members: A simulation study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-18, January.
  7. Thorburn, Craig & Rocha, Roberto & Morales, Marco, 2007. "An analysis of money's worth ratios in Chile," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 287-312, November.
  8. Ferro, Gustavo, 2008. "Un impulso al mercado de rentas vitalicias en España
    [Promoting the annuities market in Spain]
    ," MPRA Paper 20211, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2008.
  9. Ferro, Gustavo, 2008. "On annuities: an overview of the issues," MPRA Paper 20209, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2009.
  10. Estelle James & Guillermo Martinez & Augusto Iglesias, 2005. "The Payout Stage in Chile: Who Annuitizes and Why?," Working Papers 14, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised May 2007.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.