Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

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Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

Author Info

John Y. Campbell
Joao Cocco
Francisco Gomes
Pascal Maenhout
Luis Viceira

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Abstract

This paper solves numerically the intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely-lived investor who faces a time-varying equity premium. The solutions we obtain are very similar to the approximate analytical solutions of Campbell and Viceira (1999), except at the upper extreme of the state space where both the numerical consumption and portfolio rules flatten out. We also consider a contrained version of the problem in which the investor faces borrowing and short-sales contraints. These constraints bind when the equity premium moves away from its mean in either direction, and are particularly severe for risk-tolerant investors. The optimal constrained portfolio rules are similar but not idenitcal to the optimal unconstrained rules with the constraints imposed. The portfolio constraints also affect the optimal consumption policy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 1899.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:1899

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Paper
- John Y. Campbell & Joao Cocco & Francisco Gomes & Pascal Maenhout & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1344, Society for Computational Economics.

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2000-12-15 (All new papers)
NEP-FIN-2000-11-29 (Finance)
NEP-FMK-2000-11-29 (Financial Markets)

Cited by:
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Hugo Benítez-Silva, 2003. "Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers wp056, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
Chacko, George & Viceira, Luis M, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- George CHACKO & Luis M. VICEIRA, 1999. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," FAME Research Paper Series rp11, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering. [Downloadable!]
- George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 7377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 7409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ivica Dus & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities," NBER Working Papers 11271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chan & Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 8566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Campbell, John Y & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M, 2001. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Campbell, John Y. & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M., 2003. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Graciela Sanromán, 2002. "A Discrete Choice Analysis of the Household Shares of Risky Assets," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0702, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
Ivica Dus & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003. "Betting on Death and Capital Markets in Retirement: A Shortfall Risk Analysis of Life Annuities versus Phased Withdrawal Plans," Working Papers wp063, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
A.B. Berkelaar & R. Kouwenberg, 1999. "Retirement saving with contribution payments and labor income as a benchmark for investments," Econometric Institute Report 181, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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- Berkelaar, A. & Kouwenberg, R., 1999. "Retirement Saving with Contribution Payments and Labor Income as a Benchmark for Investments," Papers 9946/a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
- Berkelaar, Arjan & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2003. "Retirement saving with contribution payments and labor income as a benchmark for investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1069-1097, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Haliassos, Michalis & Michaelides, Alexander, 2001. "Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 2822, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Michael Haliassos & Alexandros Michaelides, 1999. "Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 9918, University of Cyprus Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Michael Haliassos, Alexander Michaelides, 2000. "Portfolio Choice And Liquidity Constraints," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 297, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Michael Haliassos & Alexander Michaelides, 2003. "Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 143-177, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Mathias Sommer, 2005. "Trends in German households’ portfolio behavior - assessing the importance of age- and cohort-effects," MEA discussion paper series 05082, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
Mathias Sommer, 2005. "Trends in German households’ portfolio behavior - assessing the importance of age- and cohort-effects," MEA discussion paper series 05082, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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