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How effective is the Taylor rule? Some insights from the time-frequency domain

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  • Crowley, Patrick M.
  • Hudgins, David

Abstract

When the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the mac-roeconomy as a whole? This question is addressed by extending the wavelet-based control (WBC) model of Crowley and Hudgins (2015) to evaluate macroeconomic performance when the central bank sets interest rates based on a conventional or modified Taylor rule (TR). We compare the simulated performance of jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy under an unrestricted baseline model with performance under the TR. We simulate the model un-der relatively small and large weighting of the output gap in the TR specification, and for both low and high inflation environments. The results show that the macroeconomic outcome de-pends on whether the conventional or modified Taylor rule is used, and whether the central bank is operating in a low or high inflation environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2020. "How effective is the Taylor rule? Some insights from the time-frequency domain," BoF Economics Review 1/2020, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofecr:12020
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George A. Kahn, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2018. "Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-137.
    3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
    5. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor rules in a structural VAR," Working Papers 2010-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2018. "What is the right balance between US monetary and fiscal policy? Explorations using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1537-1568, December.
    7. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2017. "Wavelet-based monetary and fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 206-231.
    8. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Fiscal policy tracking design in the time–frequency domain using wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 502-514.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discrete Wavelet Analysis; Monetary Policy; Optimal Control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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