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Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Velibor Mačkić

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

  • Petar Sorić

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

  • Ivana Lolić

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

Abstract

The literature on the political business cycle (PBC) suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic conditions in order to increase their chances of re-election. The list of variables that have been found to have a significant effect on the probability of re-election includes macroeconomic (inflation rate, unemployment rate, output growth rate) and fiscal (budget balance, level of expenditures and tax revenues) outcomes. This paper focuses on the question whether price and non-price competitiveness indicators together with consumer confidence index have a statistically significant effect. Thus, this paper addresses two empirical questions. First, in light of the globalisation process and on-going comparisons among national economies, could price and non-price indicators serve as a proxy for voters when deciding on whether to penalise or reward the incumbent? And second, based on the economic theory of voting, is consumer confidence index a better indicator of re-election probability compared to unemployment and output growth rates? Using a dataset of EU member states over the 2000-2015 period and by applying probit/logit analysis we test both questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Velibor Mačkić & Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić, 2017. "Competitiveness, consumer confidence and election outcomes," EFZG Working Papers Series 1704, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:1704
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvate, Paulo Roberto & Avelino, George & Tavares, José, 2009. "Fiscal conservatism in a new democracy: "Sophisticated" versus "naïve" voters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 125-127, February.
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    3. Toke Aidt & Francisco Veiga & Linda Veiga, 2011. "Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 21-44, July.
    4. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political business cycles; competitiveness; consumer confidence index; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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