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Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

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Author Info

  • Anna Matas

    () (GEAP, Dpt. Economia Aplicada. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

  • Josep-Lluis Raymond

    () (GEAP, Dpt. Economia i Història Econòmica. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

  • Adriana Ruiz

    (GEAP, Dpt. Economia Aplicada. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

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    Abstract

    Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

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    File URL: http://www.pcb.ub.es/xreap/aplicacio/fitxers/XREAP2009-12.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.pcb.ub.es/xreap/aplicacio/fitxers/XREAP2009-12.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP) in its series Working Papers with number XREAP2009-12.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2009
    Date of revision: Nov 2009
    Handle: RePEc:xrp:wpaper:xreap2009-12

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    Postal: Espai de Recerca en Economia, Facultat de Ciències Econòmiques i Empresarials, Universitat de Barcelona, c/ Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, 1-11, 08034 Barcelona
    Phone: +34+934039653
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    Web page: http://www.pcb.ub.edu/xreap
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