Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints
AbstractTraffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP) in its series Working Papers with number XREAP2009-12.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision: Nov 2009
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Espai de Recerca en Economia, Facultat de Ciències Econòmiques i Empresarials, Universitat de Barcelona, c/ Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, 1-11, 08034 Barcelona
Web page: http://www.pcb.ub.edu/xreap
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2009-11-07 (Forecasting)
- NEP-PPM-2009-11-07 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-URE-2009-11-07 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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