IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpe/jtecpo/v40y2006i2p297-314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long Range Air Traffic Forecasts for the UK: A Critique

Author

Listed:
  • Geoff Riddington

Abstract

This paper critiques the central and subsidiary forecasts that underpin technical discussions on runway and terminal capacity in the 2003 White Paper on the Future Development of Air Transport (Department for Transport, 2003). The central forecasts are based upon short run econometric specifications that may be questioned and lead to long run specifications that exclude key variables. This in turn leads to central UK forecasts that, despite initial appearance, are based on simple trend projection. The methods used to establish local demands are shown to be in conflict with 'best practice' for long range forecasting and to generate forecasts that 'stretch the imagination'. The conclusion is that they lack reliability. © 2006 LSE and the University of Bath

Suggested Citation

  • Geoff Riddington, 2006. "Long Range Air Traffic Forecasts for the UK: A Critique," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 40(2), pages 297-314, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:40:y:2006:i:2:p:297-314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.catchword.com/cgi-bin/cgi?ini=bc&body=linker&reqidx=0022-5258(20060501)40:2L.297;1-
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Beria, Paolo & Laurino, Antonio, 2016. "Determinants of daily fluctuations in air passenger volumes. The effect of events and holidays on Milan Malpensa airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 73-84.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6794 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:40:y:2006:i:2:p:297-314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.