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Long Range Air Traffic Forecasts for the UK: A Critique

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  • Geoff Riddington
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    Abstract

    This paper critiques the central and subsidiary forecasts that underpin technical discussions on runway and terminal capacity in the 2003 White Paper on the Future Development of Air Transport (Department for Transport, 2003). The central forecasts are based upon short run econometric specifications that may be questioned and lead to long run specifications that exclude key variables. This in turn leads to central UK forecasts that, despite initial appearance, are based on simple trend projection. The methods used to establish local demands are shown to be in conflict with 'best practice' for long range forecasting and to generate forecasts that 'stretch the imagination'. The conclusion is that they lack reliability. © 2006 LSE and the University of Bath

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    File URL: http://www.catchword.com/cgi-bin/cgi?ini=bc&body=linker&reqidx=0022-5258(20060501)40:2L.297;1-
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by London School of Economics and University of Bath in its journal Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 297-314

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    Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:40:y:2006:i:2:p:297-314

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    Web page: http://www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep

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    Cited by:
    1. Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional air traffic in the mid-term (2025): An econometric analysis of air traffic determinants using dynamic panel-data models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6794, Paris Dauphine University.

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