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Out of Equilibrium Dynamics with Decentralized Exchange Cautious Trading and Convergence to Efficiency

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  • Ghosal, Sayantan

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

  • Porter, James

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Abstract

Is the result that equilibrium trading outcomes are efficient in markets without frictions robust to a scenario where agents' beliefs and plans aren't already aligned at their equilibrium values? In this paper, starting from a situation where agents' beliefs and plans aren't already aligned at their equilibrium values, we study whether out of equilibrium trading converges to efficient allocations. We show that out-of-equilibrium trading does converge with probability 1 to an effcient allocation even when traders have limited information and trade cautiously. In economies where preferences can be represented by Cobb-Douglass utility functions, we show, numerically, that the rate of convergence will be exponential. We show that experimentation leads to convergence in some examples where multilateral exchange is essential to achieve gains from trade. We prove that experimentation does converge with probability 1 to an efficient allocation and the speed of convergence remains exponential with Cobb-Douglass utility functions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 928.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:928

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Keywords: out-of-equilibrium ; cautious ; trading ; efficiency; experimenting ; computation JEL Codes: C62 ; C63 ; C78;

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  1. McLennan, Andrew & Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1991. "Sequential Bargaining as a Noncooperative Foundation for Walrasian Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1395-1424, September.
  2. Robert Axtell, 2005. "The Complexity of Exchange," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(504), pages F193-F210, 06.
  3. Fisher, Franklin M, 1981. "Stability, Disequilibrium Awareness, and the Perception of New Opportunities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 279-317, March.
  4. Gale, Douglas M, 1986. "Bargaining and Competition Part II: Existence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 807-18, July.
  5. Gale, Douglas M, 1986. "Bargaining and Competition Part I: Characterization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 785-806, July.
  6. Goldman, Steven M & Starr, Ross M, 1982. "Pairwise, t-Wise, and Pareto Optimalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 593-606, May.
  7. Gintis Herbert, 2006. "The Emergence of a Price System from Decentralized Bilateral Exchange," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, December.
  8. Rubinstein, Ariel & Wolinsky, Asher, 1985. "Equilibrium in a Market with Sequential Bargaining," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1133-50, September.
  9. Herbert Gintis, 2007. "The Dynamics of General Equilibrium," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1280-1309, October.
  10. Feldman, Allan M, 1973. "Bilateral Trading, Processes, Pairwise Optimality, and Pareto Optimality," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 463-73, October.
  11. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February.
  12. Massimo Morelli & Sayantan Ghosal, 2001. "Retrading in Market Games," Working Papers 01-09, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
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