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Structural Models In Consumer Credit

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Author Info
Fabio de Andrade (SERASA / EAESP-FGV)
Lyn Thomas (University of Southhampton)

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Abstract

We propose a structural credit risk model for consumer lending using option theory and the concept of the value of the consumer’s reputation. Using Brazilian empirical data and a credit bureau score as proxy for creditworthiness we compare a number of alternative models before suggesting one that leads to a simple analytical solution for the probability of default. We apply the proposed model to portfolios of consumer loans introducing a factor to account for the mean influence of systemic economic factors on individuals. This results in a hybrid structural-reduced-form model. And comparisons are made with the Basel II approach. Our conclusions partially support that approach for modelling the credit risk of portfolios of retail credit.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/ri/papers/0407/0407001.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Risk and Insurance with number 0407001.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jul 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpri:0407001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 29
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Credit risk models; consumer credit; Basel II; structural models;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Avery, Robert B. & Calem, Paul S. & Canner, Glenn B., 2004. "Consumer credit scoring: Do situational circumstances matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 835-856, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robert B. Avery & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 2004. "Consumer credit scoring: do situational circumstances matter?," BIS Working Papers 146, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  3. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  5. Chunsheng Zhou, 1997. "A jump-diffusion approach to modeling credit risk and valuing defaultable securities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Kartik Athreya, 2004. "Shame as it ever was : stigma and personal bankruptcy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 1-19. [Downloadable!]
  7. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Perli, Roberto & Nayda, William I., 2004. "Economic and regulatory capital allocation for revolving retail exposures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 789-809, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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