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Bets and bids: favorite-longshot bias and winner's curse

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Author Info
Jan Potters (Tilburg University)
Jorgen Wit (University of Amsterdam)

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Abstract

A well-documented anomaly in racetrack betting is that the expected return per dollar bet on a horse increases with the probability of the horse winning. This socalled "favorite- longshot bias" is at odds with the presumptions of market efficiency. We offer a new solution to this much-debated puzzle which is related to another famous anomaly. We show that the bias can be explained by the same behavioral assumption that underlies the well-known "winner's curse" in common value auctions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Microeconomics with number 9706003.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 16 Jun 1997
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpmi:9706003

Note: Type of Document - WordPerfect; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP Laserprinter 4; pages: 22 ; figures: included
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: parimutuel market; favorite-longshot bias;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
D3 - Microeconomics - - Distribution
D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Copeland, Thomas E & Friedman, Daniel, 1987. " The Effect of Sequential Information Arrival on Asset Prices: An Experimental Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 763-97, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kagel, John H & Levin, Dan, 1991. "The Winner's Curse and Public Information in Common Value Auctions: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 362-69, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Plott, Charles R. & Sunder, Shyam., . "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Working Papers 463, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Quandt, Richard E, 1986. "Betting and Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 201-07, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1977. "Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 803-15, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. " Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
  7. McAfee, R Preston & McMillan, John, 1987. "Auctions and Bidding," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 699-738, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-53, May.
  9. Milgrom, Paul R, 1981. "Rational Expectations, Information Acquisition, and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 921-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Snyder, Wayne W, 1978. "Horse Racing: Testing the Efficient Markets Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1109-18, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2003. "Late Informed Betting and the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Discussion Papers 03-33, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Erik Eyster & Matt Rabin, 2003. "Cursed Equilibrium," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0303002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Feeney, R. & King, S.P., 2000. "Sequential Parimutuel Games," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 736, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2006. "Noise, Information, and the Favorite-Longshot Bias," FRU Working Papers 2006/04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2004. "The Timing of Bets and the Favorite-Longshot Bias," FRU Working Papers 2004/12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
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