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The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market

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  • Dixon, Mark J.
  • Pope, Peter F.
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4CB0C4D-1/2/fe6c7f6142da497e3ba28070ed608223
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 697-711

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:20:y:2004:i:4:p:697-711

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    References

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    1. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
    2. Quandt, Richard E, 1986. "Betting and Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 201-07, February.
    3. Ali, Mukhtar M, 1977. "Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 803-15, August.
    4. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-61, December.
    5. Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-86, December.
    6. Shin, Hyun Song, 1992. "Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Traders, and the Favourite-Longshot Bias," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 426-35, March.
    7. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-74, Spring.
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    Cited by:
    1. David Johnstone, 2007. "Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 47-96, February.
    2. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
    3. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    4. Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2007. "The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-413.
    5. Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
    6. Ryall, Richard & Bedford, Anthony, 2010. "An optimized ratings-based model for forecasting Australian Rules football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 511-517, July.
    7. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nuesch, 2009. "Inter-market Arbitrage in Sports Betting," NCER Working Paper Series 48, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    8. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0096, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2009.
    9. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
    10. McHale, Ian & Morton, Alex, 2011. "A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 619-630, April.
    11. Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
    12. Goossens, Dries & Beliën, Jeroen & Spieksma, Frederik, 2008. "Comparing league formats with respect to match importance in Belgian football," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/209046, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.

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