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The Information Technology Revolution and the Puzzling Trends in Tobin’s average q

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Author Info
Adrian Peralta-Alva (University of Miami)

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Abstract

A growing literature argues that the Information Technology rev- olution caused the stock market crash of 1973-1974, its subsequent stagnation and eventual recovery. This paper employs general equi- librium theory to test whether this good news hypothesis is consistent with the behavior of US equity prices and with the trends in corpo- rate output, investment and consumption. I …nd it is not. A model based exclusively on good news can make equity prices fall as much as in the data but it must also imply a strong economic expansion right when the US economy stagnated. However, when the observed productivity slowdown in old production methods is incorporated into the model consistency with major macroeconomic aggregates can be achieved and a 20% drop in equity values can be accounted for. (JEL E44, O33, O41)

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0511007.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0511007

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Information Technology Revolution Stock Market Productivity Slowdown Tobin's q 1974 Crash

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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