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An Error Correction Analysis of U.S.-Mexico Trade Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Richard L Sprinkle

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Abstract

Estimation of bilateral trade elasticities is less well documented than is the case for aggregate trade flows. This study estimates bilateral trade equations for Mexico and the United States. The empirical analysis is carried out using an error correction approach that allows imports and exports to adjust over time to changes in the independent variables that affect the demands for them. Results obtained indicate that imports and exports between the two neighbors react heterogeneously to variations in domestic prices, foreign prices, and currency values. Lag structures between the two trade equations also differ from each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard L Sprinkle, 2005. "An Error Correction Analysis of U.S.-Mexico Trade Flows," International Trade 0506003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0506003
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Fullerton & W. Sawyer & Richard Sprinkle, 1999. "Latin American trade elasticities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 143-156, June.
    2. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1984. "How Reliable Are Simple, Single Equation Specifications of Import Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 120-128, February.
    3. Stone, Joe A, 1979. "Price Elasticities of Demand for Imports and Exports: Industry Estimates for the U.S., the E.E.C. and Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 306-312, May.
    4. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
    5. Khan, Mohsin S & Ross, Knud Z, 1975. "Cyclical and Secular Income Elasticities of the Demand for Imports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 357-361, August.
    6. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. & W. Charles Sowyer & Richard L. Sprinkle, 1997. "Functional form for United States-México trade equations," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 12(1), pages 23-35.
    7. Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Konno, Toru & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2003. "Did NAFTA cause the structural changes in bilateral import functions between the US and Mexico?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 53-59, January.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "An Error-Correction Analysis Of India-Us Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 29-51, March.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bolhassani, Marzieh & Hegerty, Scott W., 2010. "The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 212-223, December.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Rodrigo Costamagna & Gustavo Rossini, 2016. "Competitive Devaluations in Commodity-Based Economies: Colombia and the Pacific Alliance Group," CESifo Working Paper Series 5907, CESifo.
    4. Mollick, André Varella, 2009. "Employment Responses of Skilled and Unskilled Workers at Mexican Maquiladoras: The Effects of External Factors," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1285-1296, July.
    5. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Import elasticities and the external constraint in Mexico," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 363-377, September.
    6. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2014. "Trade, investment, and capital flows:Mexico's macroeconomic adjustment to the Great Recession," Working Paper Series Sobre México 2014002, Sobre México. Temas en economía.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral Trade Flows; Error Correction Analysis; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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