Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Fresh Tomatoes Imports from Mexico to the United States
AbstractThe agri-food trade between Mexico and the United States grew substantially after the implementation of NAFTA in 1994. While some analysts argue that NAFTA has contributed the most to the dramatic expansion of this trade, others have emphasized the role played by the exchange rate in this process. An attempt is made in this paper to address this issue by quantifying the effects of NAFTA, the Mexico-US exchange rate changes and its volatility on the fresh tomato imports into the United States from Mexico using the maximum likelihood cointegration analysis. The results from the cointegration analysis show that while changes in exchange rate have a positive effect on trade flows, volatility of the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on trade flows. The results from the error-correction model show that both NAFTA and the exchange rate have significant positive influence on fresh tomato imports in the United States from Mexico. However, the effects of exchange rate changes outweigh the effects of NAFTA in the short-run
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China with number 51459.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Exchange rate; exchange rate volatility; fresh tomatoes trade; NAFTA; cointegration analysis and error-correction modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hong Liang, 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility-Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 98/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 1998.
"A review of systemscointegration tests,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,101, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Alper Guzel, H. & Kulshreshtha, Surendra N., 1995. "Effects of real exchange rate changes on Canadian agriculture: A general equilibrium evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 639-657, December.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Elie Appelbaum, 1996.
"Import Price Uncertainty and the Distribution of Income,"
1996_10, York University, Department of Economics.
- Elie Appelbaum & Ulrich Kohli, 1997. "Import Price Uncertainty And The Distribution Of Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 620-630, November.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Jeffrey H. Dorfman & William D. Lastrapes, 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 530-541.
- anonymous, 1986. "Review of monetary policy and conditions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 49, december.
- Konno, Toru & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2003. "Did NAFTA cause the structural changes in bilateral import functions between the US and Mexico?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 53-59, January.
- McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
- Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
- Qian, Ying & Varangis, Panos, 1994. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Hinder Export Growth?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 371-96.
- Stephen W. Fuller & Nicolas Gutierrez & Oral Capps, 1992. "International dry onion trade: Factors affecting import demands for US dry onions," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(5), pages 445-455.
- Malaga, Jaime E. & Williams, Gary W. & Fuller, Stephen W., 2001. "US-Mexico fresh vegetable trade: the effects of trade liberalization and economic growth," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 45-55, October.
- Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
- Belanger, Denis & Gutierrez, Sylvia & Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques, 1992.
"The impact of exchange rate variability on trade flows: Further results on sectoral U.S. imports from Canada,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 61-82.
- Belanger, D. & Gutierrez, S. & Racette, D. & Raynauld, J., 1990. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Variability On Trade Flows: Further Results On Sectoral U.S. Imports From Canada," Papers 90-08, ECOLE DES HAUTES ETUDES COMMERCIALES (H.E.C.), MONTREAL-.
- Padilla-Bernal, Luz E. & Thilmany, Dawn D., 2003. "Price Relationships Among North American Fresh Tomato Markets: A Comparison Between Mexican And U.S. Markets," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 5(03).
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Hafer, R W & Sheehan, Richard G, 1991. "Policy Inference Using VAR Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 44-52, January.
- Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.