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Analyzing the Time between Trades with a Gamma Compounded Hazard Model. An Application to LIFFE Bund Future Transactions

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Nikolaus Hautsch (Center of Finance and Econometrics)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the time between transactions on financial markets. It is assumed that the interval between transactions is a random variable and the relationship between the probability to observe a transaction at each instant of time and the type of the previous trade is investigated. To estimate these effects, a semiparametric proportional hazard model is used which is based on approaches proposed by Han and Hausman (1990) and Meyer (1990). Considering grouped durations the log-likelihood is formed by using differences in the survivor function. Hence, the model corresponds to an ordered response approach whereby the baseline hazard is estimated simultaneously with the coefficients of the covariates and is calculated by the thresholds. Clustering of the durations is taken into account by including lagged durations. A test is proposed to check for serial correlation in the errors based on the concept of generalized residuals along the lines of the work of Gourieroux, Monfort and Trognon (1987). Unobservable heterogeneity is implemented parametrically by a gamma distributed random variable entering the hazard function. It is shown that the resulting compounded model follows a BurrII form. In an empirical analysis high frequency intraday transaction data from the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) is investigated.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9904002.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 14 Apr 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9904002

Note: 32 pages
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Honore, Bo E, 1990. "Simple Estimation of a Duration Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 453-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert F. Engle & Asger Lunde, 1998. "Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-07, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ananth Madhavan & Matthew Richardson & Mark Roomans, 1996. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-34, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    Other versions:
  7. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  8. Aitken, Michael & Brown, Philip & Buckland, Christine & Izan, H. Y. & Walter, Terry, 1996. "Price clustering on the Australian Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 297-314, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  10. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1984. "General approach of serial correlation (a)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8424, CEPREMAP.
  12. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Richard B. Olsen & Ulrich A. Müller & Michel M. Dacorogna & Olivier V. Pictet & Rakhal R. Davé & Dominique M. Guillaume, 1997. "From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 95-129. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. T. Addison, John & Portugal, Pedro, 1998. "Some specification issues in unemployment duration analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 53-66, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bidisha Chakrabarty & Zhaohui Han & Konstantin Tyurin & Xiaoyong Zheng, 2006. "A Competing Risk Analysis of Executions and Cancellations in a Limit Order Market," Caepr Working Papers 2006-015, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frank Gerhard & Nikolaus Hautsch, 1999. "Volatility Estimation on the Basis of Price Intensities," CoFE Discussion Paper 99-19, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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