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A Continuous-Time Measurement of the Buy-Sell Pressure in a Limit Order Book Market

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Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the buy and sell arrivl process in a limit order book market. Using an intensity framework allows to estimate the simultaneous buy and sell intensity and to derive a continuous-time measure for the buy-sell pressure in the market. Based on limit order book data from the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), we show that the buy-sell pressure is particularly influenced by recent market and limit orders and the current depth in the ask and bid queue. We find evidence for the hypothesis that traders use order book information in order to infer from the price setting behavior of market participants. Furthermore, our results indicate that the buy-sell pressure is clearly predictable and is a significant determinant of trade-to-trade returns and volatility.

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File URL: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/research/research_papers/rp121.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 121.

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Length: 42
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:121

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Keywords: buy and sell arrival process; order book information; market depth; bivariate autoregressive intensity model; buy-sell exces intensity;

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References

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  1. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1997. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 995-1034.
  2. Wang, Jianxin, 1999. "Asymmetric information and the bid-ask spread: an empirical comparison between automated order execution and open outcry auction," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 115-128, April.
  3. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  4. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  5. Seppi, Duane J, 1997. "Liquidity Provision with Limit Orders and a Strategic Specialist," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 103-50.
  6. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
  7. Al-Suhaibani, Mohammad & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2000. "An exploratory analysis of the order book, and order flow and execution on the Saudi stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1323-1357, August.
  8. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-61, September.
  9. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Order Imbalance, Liquidity, and Market Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7gh9t9w3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  10. Clive Bowsher, 2002. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2002-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  11. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  12. Stoll, Hans R, 1989. " Inferring the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 115-34, March.
  13. Harris, Lawrence & Hasbrouck, Joel, 1996. "Market vs. Limit Orders: The SuperDOT Evidence on Order Submission Strategy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(02), pages 213-231, June.
  14. Handa, Puneet & Schwartz, Robert & Tiwari, Ashish, 2003. "Quote setting and price formation in an order driven market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 461-489, August.
  15. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
  16. Griffiths, Mark D. & Smith, Brian F. & Turnbull, D. Alasdair S. & White, Robert W., 2000. "The costs and determinants of order aggressiveness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 65-88, April.
  17. Alessandro Beber & Cecilia Caglio, 2005. "Order Submission Strategies and Information: Empirical Evidence from the NYSE," FAME Research Paper Series rp146, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  18. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  19. Hollifield, Burton & Miller, Robert A. & Sandås, Patrik & Slive, Joshua, 2002. "Liquidity Supply and Demand in Limit Order Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
  21. Chan, Kalok & Fong, Wai-Ming, 2000. "Trade size, order imbalance, and the volatility-volume relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 247-273, August.
  22. Niemeyer, Jonas & Sandås, Patrik, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Trading Structure at the Stockholm Stock Exchange," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 44, Stockholm School of Economics.
  23. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March.
  24. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  25. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2004. "Order aggressiveness in limit order book markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 53-74, January.
  26. Cohen, Kalman J, et al, 1981. "Transaction Costs, Order Placement Strategy, and Existence of the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 287-305, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2007. "Market sidedness: insights into motives for trade initiation," Staff Reports 292, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Anthony Hall & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2006. "Order aggressiveness and order book dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 973-1005, January.
  3. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
  4. Charles Cao & Oliver Hansch & Xiaoxin Wang, 2008. "Order Placement Strategies In A Pure Limit Order Book Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 113-140.

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