Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A local non-parametric model for trade sign inference

Contents:

Author Info

  • Adam Blazejewski

    (University of Sydney)

  • Richard Coggins

    (University of Sydney)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We investigate a regularity in market order submission strategies for twelve stocks with large market capitalization on the Australian Stock Exchange. The regularity is evidenced by a predictable relationship between the trade sign (trade initiator), size of the trade, and the contents of the limit order book before the trade. We demonstrate this predictability by developing an empirical inference model to classify trades into buyer-initiated and seller-initiated. The model employs a local non-parametric method, k-nearest-neighbor, which in the past was used successfully for chaotic time series prediction. The k-nearest- neighbor with three predictor variables achieves an average out-of- sample classification accuracy of 71.40%, compared to 63.32% for the linear logistic regression with seven predictor variables. The result suggests that a non-linear approach may produce a more parsimonious trade sign inference model with a higher out-of-sample classification accuracy. Furthermore, for most of our stocks the observed regularity in market order submissions seems to have a memory of at least 30 trading days.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/fin/papers/0408/0408009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0408009.

    as in new window
    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: 30 Aug 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0408009

    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 17
    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://128.118.178.162

    Related research

    Keywords: Order submission; Trade classification; K-nearest-neighbor; Non-linear; Memory;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Michael Aitken & Amaryllis Kua & Philip Brown & Terry Watter & H. Y. Izan, 1995. "An Intraday Analysis of the Probability of Trading on the ASX at the Asking Price," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(2), pages 115-154, December.
    2. Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2003. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 133-140.
    3. Ilija Zovko & J Doyne Farmer, 2002. "The power of patience: a behavioural regularity in limit-order placement," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 387-392.
    4. Fabrizio Lillo & J. Doyne Farmer, 2003. "The long memory of the efficient market," Papers cond-mat/0311053, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2004.
    5. Hamao, Y. & Hasbrouck, J., 1992. "Securities Trading in the Absence of Dealers: Trade and Quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Papers 92-35, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    6. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2004. "Order aggressiveness in limit order book markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 53-74, January.
    7. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
    8. Verhoeven, Peter & Ching, Simon & Guan Ng, Hock, 2004. "Determinants of the decision to submit market or limit orders on the ASX," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Ellis, Katrina & Michaely, Roni & O'Hara, Maureen, 2000. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Rules: Evidence from Nasdaq," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 529-551, December.
    10. Ahn, Hee-Joon & Cheung, Yan-Leung, 1999. "The intraday patterns of the spread and depth in a market without market makers: The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 539-556, December.
    11. Aitken, Michael & Frino, Alex, 1996. "The accuracy of the tick test: Evidence from the Australian stock exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1715-1729, December.
    12. Hedvall, Kaj & Niemeyer, Jonas & Rosenqvist, Gunnar, 1997. "Do buyers and sellers behave similarly in a limit order book? A high-frequency data examination of the Finnish stock exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 279-293, June.
    13. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
    14. repec:sfi:sfiwpa:0210710 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2003. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes," Papers cond-mat/0307332, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
    16. Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Adam Blazejewski & Richard Coggins, 2004. "A piecewise linear model for trade sign inference," Finance 0412012, EconWPA.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0408009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.