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Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets

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Author Info
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Julien Kockelkoren
Marc Potters

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Abstract

Stock prices are observed to be random walks in time despite a strong, long-term memory in the signs of trades (buys or sells). Lillo and Farmer have recently suggested that these correlations are compensated by opposite long-ranged fluctuations in liquidity, with an otherwise permanent market impact, challenging the scenario proposed in Quantitative Finance , 2004, 4, 176, where the impact is instead transient , with a power-law decay in time. The exponent of this decay is precisely tuned to a critical value, ensuring simultaneously that prices are diffusive on long time scales and that the impact function is nearly lag independent. We provide new analysis of empirical data that confirm and make more precise our previous claims. We show that the power-law decay of the bare impact function comes both from an excess flow of limit order opposite to the market order flow, and to a systematic anti-correlation of the bid--ask motion between trades, two effects that create a 'liquidity molasses’ which dampens market volatility.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 115-123
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Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:115-123

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fabrizio Lillo & J. Farmer, 2004. "The Long Memory of the Efficient Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 8(3), pages 1226-1226. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  3. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Mezard & Marc Potters, 2002. "Statistical properties of stock order books: empirical results and models," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0203511, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management. [Downloadable!]
  4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lux, Thomas, 1996. "The Stable Paretian Hypothesis and the Frequency of Large Returns: An Examination of Major German Stocks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 463-75, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Matthieu Wyart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters & Michele Vettorazzo, 2006. "Relation between Bid-Ask Spread, Impact and Volatility in Double Auction Markets," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500067, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike, 2006. "Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 107-112, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2008-12-19.

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