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Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets

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  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
  • Julien Kockelkoren
  • Marc Potters

Abstract

Stock prices are observed to be random walks in time despite a strong, long-term memory in the signs of trades (buys or sells). Lillo and Farmer have recently suggested that these correlations are compensated by opposite long-ranged fluctuations in liquidity, with an otherwise permanent market impact, challenging the scenario proposed in Quantitative Finance, 2004, 4, 176, where the impact is instead transient, with a power-law decay in time. The exponent of this decay is precisely tuned to a critical value, ensuring simultaneously that prices are diffusive on long time scales and that the impact function is nearly lag independent. We provide new analysis of empirical data that confirm and make more precise our previous claims. We show that the power-law decay of the bare impact function comes both from an excess flow of limit order opposite to the market order flow, and to a systematic anti-correlation of the bid-ask motion between trades, two effects that create a 'liquidity molasses' which dampens market volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 115-123

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Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:115-123

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References

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  1. Wyart, Matthieu & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2007. "Self-referential behaviour, overreaction and conventions in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, May.
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  7. Philipp Weber & Bernd Rosenow, 2006. "Large stock price changes: volume or liquidity?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 7-14.
  8. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2004. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of 'random' price changes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 176-190.
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  12. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2003. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes," Papers cond-mat/0307332, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Steffen Bohn, 2011. "The slippage paradox," Working Papers hal-00574268, HAL.
  2. repec:sfi:sfiwpa:500067 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. B. T�th & Z. Eisler & F. Lillo & J. Kockelkoren & J.-P. Bouchaud & J.D. Farmer, 2012. "How does the market react to your order flow?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 1015-1024, May.
  4. Bence Toth & Imon Palit & Fabrizio Lillo & J. Doyne Farmer, 2011. "Why is order flow so persistent?," Papers 1108.1632, arXiv.org.
  5. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2011. "Panel Statement: The endogenous dynamics of markets: price impact and feedback loops," Chapters, European Central Bank.
  6. Hynek Lavicka & Tomas Lichard & Jan Novotny, 2014. "Sand in the Wheels or Wheels in the Sand? Tobin Taxes and Market Crashes," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp511, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  7. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda & Jan Novotný, 2013. "Price Jumps on European Stock Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1059, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. Szabolcs Mike & J. Doyne Farmer, 2007. "An empirical behavioral model of liquidity and volatility," Papers 0709.0159, arXiv.org.
  9. Matthieu Wyart & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters & Michele Vettorazzo, 2006. "Relation between Bid-Ask Spread, Impact and Volatility in Double Auction Markets," Papers physics/0603084, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2007.
  10. Chiarella, C. & Iori, G. & Perello, J., 2008. "The Impact of Heterogeneous Trading Rules on the Limit Order Book and Order Flows," Working Papers 08/04, Department of Economics, City University London.
  11. Enzo Busseti & Fabrizio Lillo, 2012. "Calibration of optimal execution of financial transactions in the presence of transient market impact," Papers 1206.0682, arXiv.org.
  12. R\'emy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "The fine-structure of volatility feedback I: multi-scale self-reflexivity," Papers 1206.2153, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
  13. J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike, 2006. "Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: Is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?," Papers physics/0602015, arXiv.org.
  14. Khalil al Dayri & Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Francois Muzy, 2010. "The nature of price returns during periods of high market activity," Papers 1010.4226, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2010.
  15. Steffen Bohn, 2011. "The slippage paradox," Papers 1103.2214, arXiv.org.
  16. A. Zaccaria & M. Cristelli & V. Alfi & F. Ciulla & L. Pietronero, 2009. "Asymmetric statistics of order books: The role of discreteness and evidence for strategic order placement," Papers 0906.1387, arXiv.org, revised May 2010.
  17. Wyart, Matthieu & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2007. "Self-referential behaviour, overreaction and conventions in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, May.

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