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Evidence Theory: A Mathematical Framework for Unpredictable Hypotheses

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Author Info
Guido Fioretti (Universita' di Siena)

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Abstract

Shafer's evidence theory is a branch of the mathematics of uncertain reasoning that allows for novel possibilities to be conceived by a decision-maker. Many of its findings exhibit striking similarities with an alternative decision theory purported by Shackle in the 1950s, before expected utility maximization monopolized the scene. Evidence theory does not attempt to formalize the emergence of novelties, but it is a suitable framework for reconstructing the formation of beliefs when novelties appear. An application to decision-making in the biotech and pharmaceutical industry illustrates the potentialities of evidence theory, as well as its shortcomings.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Experimental with number 0207001.

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Date of creation: 19 Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:0207001

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Related research
Keywords: Shackle; Shafer; Cognition; Innovation; Biotechnology;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ford, J.L. & Ghose, S., 1994. "Belief, Credibility, Disbelief, Possibility, Potential Surprise and Probability as Measures of Uncertainty: Some Experimental Evidence," Discussion Papers 94-22, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  3. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fioretti, Guido, 2009. "Either, Or. Exploration of an Emerging Decision Theory," MPRA Paper 12897, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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