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A mathematical theory of evidence for G.L.S. Shackle

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  • Guido Fioretti

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Abstract

Evidence Theory is a branch of mathematics that concerns the combination of empirical evidence in an individual's mind in order to construct a coherent picture of reality. Designed to deal with unexpected empirical evidence suggesting new possibilities, evidence theory has a lot in common with Shackle's idea of decision-making as a creative act. This essay investigates this connection in detail, pointing to the usefulness of evidence theory to formalise and extend Shackle's decision theory. In order to ease a proper framing of the issues involved, evidence theory is not only compared with Shackle's ideas but also with additive and sub-additive probability theories. Furthermore, the presentation of evidence theory does not refer to the original version only, but takes account of its most recent developments, too.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02512076
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Fondazione Rosselli in its journal Mind & Society.

Volume (Year): 2 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 77-98

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Handle: RePEc:spr:minsoc:v:2:y:2001:i:1:p:77-98

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Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11299
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Keywords: Decision theory; cognition; novel events;

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References

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  1. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
  2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  3. David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
  4. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
  5. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  6. Sarin, Rakesh K & Wakker, Peter, 1992. "A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(6), pages 1255-72, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Fioretti, Guido, 2009. "Either, Or. Exploration of an Emerging Decision Theory," MPRA Paper 12897, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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