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Scoring Drop-Out at a Microlender in Bolivia

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Author Info
Mark Schreiner (Washington University in St. Louis)

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Abstract

This paper presents a scoring model that predicts the risk of drop-out for borrowers at a microfinance lender in Bolivia. Drop-out risk was greater for women, manufacturers, newer borrowers, and those with more arrears. Out-of-sample tests suggest that scoring may help microfinance lenders to detect segments of their clientele (and even specific current clients) who are at-risk of drop-out.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0109009.

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Date of creation: 05 Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0109009

Note: Type of Document - Adobe Acrobat 3.0; prepared on Windows 98; to print on Adobe Acrobat 3.0; pages: ; figures: Included in pdf file
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Scoring; credit risk; risk management; financial institutions; microfinance;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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  1. D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Navajas, Sergio & Schreiner, Mark & Meyer, Richard L. & Gonzalez-vega, Claudio & Rodriguez-meza, Jorge, 2000. "Microcredit and the Poorest of the Poor: Theory and Evidence from Bolivia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 333-346, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "What's the point of credit scoring?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
  4. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Wiginton, John C., 1980. "A Note on the Comparison of Logit and Discriminant Models of Consumer Credit Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 757-770, September. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  7. Greene, William, 1998. "Sample selection in credit-scoring models1," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 299-316, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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