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Scoring Drop-Out at a Microlender in Bolivia

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  • Mark Schreiner

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract

This paper presents a scoring model that predicts the risk of drop-out for borrowers at a microfinance lender in Bolivia. Drop-out risk was greater for women, manufacturers, newer borrowers, and those with more arrears. Out-of-sample tests suggest that scoring may help microfinance lenders to detect segments of their clientele (and even specific current clients) who are at-risk of drop-out.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/dev/papers/0109/0109009.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0109009.

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Date of creation: 05 Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0109009

Note: Type of Document - Adobe Acrobat 3.0; prepared on Windows 98; to print on Adobe Acrobat 3.0; pages: ; figures: Included in pdf file
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Scoring; credit risk; risk management; financial institutions; microfinance;

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References

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  1. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  2. D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541.
  3. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
  4. Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "What's the point of credit scoring?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
  5. Navajas, Sergio & Schreiner, Mark & Meyer, Richard L. & Gonzalez-vega, Claudio & Rodriguez-meza, Jorge, 2000. "Microcredit and the Poorest of the Poor: Theory and Evidence from Bolivia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 333-346, February.
  6. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
  7. Greene, William, 1998. "Sample selection in credit-scoring models1," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 299-316, July.
  8. Wiginton, John C., 1980. "A Note on the Comparison of Logit and Discriminant Models of Consumer Credit Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 757-770, September.
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