A Scoring Model of the Risk of Costly Arrears at a Microfinance Lender in Bolivia
AbstractCan scoring models help microfinance lenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? I model the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia had arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to include in statistical models, I find that inexpensive data does indeed have some predictive power. In microfinance, computer models will not replace loan officers, but they can flag the highest risks and act as a cross-check on human judgement.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0109005.
Date of creation: 05 Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - Adobe Acrobat 3.0; prepared on Windows 98; to print on Adobe Acrobat 3.0; pages: ; figures: Included in pdf file
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://18.104.22.168
Scoring; risk management; credit risk; Bolivia; microfinance;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
- O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-09-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAM-2001-09-10 (Central & South America)
- NEP-MFD-2001-09-10 (Microfinance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zeller, Manfred, 1996. "Determinants of repayment performance in credit groups," FCND discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Jens Reinke, 1998. "How to lend like mad and make a profit: A micro-credit paradigm versus the start-up fund in South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 44-61.
- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
- D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541.
- Reichert, Alan K & Cho, Chien-Ching & Wagner, George M, 1983. "An Examination of the Conceptual Issues Involved in Developing Credit-scoring Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 101-14, April.
- Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "What's the point of credit scoring?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
- Sharma, Manohar & Zeller, Manfred, 1997. "Repayment performance in group-based credit programs in Bangladesh: An empirical analysis," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1731-1742, October.
- Rayo Cantón, Salvador & Lara Rubio, Juan & Camino Blasco, David, 2010. "A Credit Scoring Model For Institutions Of Microfinance Under The Basel Ii Normative," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, Universidad ESAN, vol. 15(28), pages 89-124.
- Vogelgesang, Ulrike, 2003.
"Microfinance in Times of Crisis: The Effects of Competition, Rising Indebtedness, and Economic Crisis on Repayment Behavior,"
World Development, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 2085-2114, December.
- Ulrike Vogelgesang, 2001. "Microfinance in Times of Crisis: The Effects of Competition, Rising Indebtedness, and Economic Crisis on Repayment Behavior," GK working paper series, Post Graduate Programme "Allocation on Financial Markets", University of Mannheim 2001-06, Post Graduate Programme "Allocation on Financial Markets", University of Mannheim, revised Nov 2001.
- Mermelstein, David A., 2006.
"Defaults en carteras hipotecarias, macroeconomía y arreglos institucionales: Más allá de los modelos de Credit-Scoring tradicionales
[Mortgage defaults, macroeconomics, and institutional arrange," MPRA Paper 7535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mark Schreiner, 2001. "Audit Sampling Microfinance Portfolio-at-Risk," Computational Economics, EconWPA 0109001, EconWPA.
- Kuhn, M.E. & Darroch, Mark A.G. & Ortmann, Gerald F., 2000. "Assessing the efficacy of a South African microlender's loan screening mechanism," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(4), December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.