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A Scoring Model of the Risk of Costly Arrears at a Microfinance Lender in Bolivia

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Author Info
Mark Schreiner (Washington University in St. Louis)

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Abstract

Can scoring models help microfinance lenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? I model the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia had arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to include in statistical models, I find that inexpensive data does indeed have some predictive power. In microfinance, computer models will not replace loan officers, but they can flag the highest risks and act as a cross-check on human judgement.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0109005.

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Date of creation: 05 Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0109005

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Keywords: Scoring risk management credit risk Bolivia microfinance

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Reichert, Alan K & Cho, Chien-Ching & Wagner, George M, 1983. "An Examination of the Conceptual Issues Involved in Developing Credit-scoring Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 101-14, April.
  2. D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "What's the point of credit scoring?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sharma, Manohar & Zeller, Manfred, 1997. "Repayment performance in group-based credit programs in Bangladesh: An empirical analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1731-1742, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ulrike Vogelgesang, 2001. "Microfinance in Times of Crisis: The Effects of Competition, Rising Indebtedness, and Economic Crisis on Repayment Behavior," GK working paper series 2001-06, Post Graduate Programme "Allocation on Financial Markets", University of Mannheim, revised Nov 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mark Schreiner, 2001. "Audit Sampling Microfinance Portfolio-at-Risk," Computational Economics 0109001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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