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An Empirical Study of the Credit Market with Unobserved Consumer Typers

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Author Info
Li Gan
Roberto Mosquera

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Abstract

This paper proposes an econometric model to identify unobserved consumer types in the credit market. Consumers choose different amounts of loan because of differences in their time or risk preferences (types). Thus, the unconditional probability of default is modeled using a mixture density combining a type-conditioning default variable with a type-determining random variable. The model is estimated using individual-level consumer credit card information. The parameter estimates and statistical tests support this kind of specification. Furthermore, the model produces better out-of-sample predictions on the probability of default than traditional models; hence, it provides evidence of the existence of types in the consumer credit market.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13873.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13873

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Microeconomic Data
D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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  1. Stahl, Dale II & Wilson, Paul W., 1994. "Experimental evidence on players' models of other players," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 309-327, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christopher R. Knittel & Victor Stango, 2003. "Price Ceilings as Focal Points for Tacit Collusion: Evidence from Credit Cards," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1703-1729, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Feinstein, Jonathan S, 1990. "Detection Controlled Estimation," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 233-76, April.
  5. Edelstein, Robert H, 1975. "Improving the Selection of Credit Risks: An Analysis of a Commercial Bank Minority Lending Program," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 37-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Spence, A Michael, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 355-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jaffee, Dwight M & Russell, Thomas, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-66, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Milde, Hellmuth & Riley, John G, 1988. "Signaling in Credit Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 101-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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