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An Empirical Study of the Credit Market with Unobserved Consumer Typers

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  • Li Gan
  • Roberto Mosquera

Abstract

This paper proposes an econometric model to identify unobserved consumer types in the credit market. Consumers choose different amounts of loan because of differences in their time or risk preferences (types). Thus, the unconditional probability of default is modeled using a mixture density combining a type-conditioning default variable with a type-determining random variable. The model is estimated using individual-level consumer credit card information. The parameter estimates and statistical tests support this kind of specification. Furthermore, the model produces better out-of-sample predictions on the probability of default than traditional models; hence, it provides evidence of the existence of types in the consumer credit market.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Gan & Roberto Mosquera, 2008. "An Empirical Study of the Credit Market with Unobserved Consumer Typers," NBER Working Papers 13873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13873
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    Cited by:

    1. Gan, Li & Huang, Feng & Mayer, Adalbert, 2015. "A simple test for private information in insurance markets with heterogeneous insurance demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 197-200.
    2. Li Gan & Manuel A. Hernandez & Yanyan Liu, 2018. "Group Lending With Heterogeneous Types," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 895-913, April.
    3. Li Gan & Tarun Sabarwal & Shuoxun Zhang, 2010. "Personal Bankruptcy: Reconciling Adverse Events and Strategic Timing Hypotheses Using Heterogeneity in Filing Types," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201008, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
    4. Xi Wu & Li Gan, 2023. "Multiple dimensions of private information in life insurance markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2145-2180, November.
    5. Gan, Li & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Zhang, Shuoxun, 2021. "Insurance or deliberate use of the bankruptcy law for financial gain? Testing for heterogeneous filing behaviors in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Escobari, Diego & Serrano, Alejandro, 2015. "Reducing Asymmetric Information in Venture Capital Backed IPOs," MPRA Paper 68140, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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