This paper proposes an econometric model to identify unobserved consumer types in the credit market. Consumers choose different amounts of loan because of differences in their time or risk preferences (types). Thus, the unconditional probability of default is modeled using a mixture density combining a type-conditioning default variable with a type-determining random variable. The model is estimated using individual-level consumer credit card information. The parameter estimates and statistical tests support this kind of specification. Furthermore, the model produces better out-of-sample predictions on the probability of default than traditional models; hence, it provides evidence of the existence of types in the consumer credit market.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
13873.
Length: Date of creation: Mar 2008 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13873
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Microeconomic Data D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
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