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The role of US based FDI flows for global output dynamics

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  • Huber, Florian
  • Fischer, Manfred M.
  • Piribauer, Philipp

Abstract

This paper uses a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to analyze the relationship between FDI inflows and output dynamics in a multi-country context. The GVAR model enables us to make two important contributions: First, to model international linkages among a large number of countries, which is a key asset given the diversity of countries involved, and second, to model foreign direct investment and output dynamics jointly. The country-specific small-dimensional vector autoregressive submodels are estimated utilizing a Bayesian version of the model coupled with stochastic search variable selection priors to account for model uncertainty. Using a sample of 15 emerging and advanced economies over the period 1998:Q1 to 2012:Q4, we find that US outbound FDI exerts a positive long-term effect on output. Asian and Latin American economies tend to react faster and also stronger than Western European countries. Forecast error variance decompositions indicate that FDI plays a prominent role in explaining GDP fluctuations, especially in emerging market economies. Our findings provide evidence for policy makers to design macroeconomic policies to attract FDI inflows in the respective countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Huber, Florian & Fischer, Manfred M. & Piribauer, Philipp, 2017. "The role of US based FDI flows for global output dynamics," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 239, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:5427
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2021. "Modelling European regional FDI flows using a Bayesian spatial Poisson interaction model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(3), pages 593-616, December.
    2. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2021. "A Bayesian spatial autoregressive logit model with an empirical application to European regional FDI flows," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 231-257, July.
    3. Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2021. "The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 887-900.
    4. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2023. "A joint spatial econometric model for regional FDI and output growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 87-106, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI-output relationship; cross-country spillovers; transmission of external shocks; Bayesian global vectorautoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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