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The Role Of Us-Based Fdi Flows For Global Output Dynamics

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  • Huber, Florian
  • Fischer, Manfred M.
  • Piribauer, Philipp

Abstract

This paper uses a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to analyze the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and output dynamics in a multicountry context. The GVAR model enables us to make two important contributions: First, to model international linkages among a large number of countries, which is a key asset given the diversity of countries involved, and second, to model foreign direct investment and output dynamics jointly. The country-specific small-dimensional vector autoregressive submodels are estimated utilizing a Bayesian version of the model coupled with stochastic search variable selection priors to account for model uncertainty. Using a sample of 15 emerging and advanced economies over the period 1998:Q1–2012:Q4, we find that US outbound FDI exerts a positive long-term effect on output. Asian and Latin American economies tend to react faster and also stronger than Western European countries. Forecast error variance decompositions indicate that FDI plays a prominent role in explaining gross domestic product fluctuations, especially in emerging market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Huber, Florian & Fischer, Manfred M. & Piribauer, Philipp, 2019. "The Role Of Us-Based Fdi Flows For Global Output Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 943-973, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:03:p:943-973_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2021. "Modelling European regional FDI flows using a Bayesian spatial Poisson interaction model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(3), pages 593-616, December.
    2. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2021. "A Bayesian spatial autoregressive logit model with an empirical application to European regional FDI flows," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 231-257, July.
    3. Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2021. "The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 887-900.
    4. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2023. "A joint spatial econometric model for regional FDI and output growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 87-106, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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