Does Internal Migration Lead to Faster Regional Convergence in Turkey? an Empirical Investigation
AbstractIn this study, using econometric methods, we examine whether internal migration in the last 30 years in Turkey has had any effect on the speed of convergence across Turkish provinces. According to standard neoclassical theory, migration across regions is conducive to faster convergence in income per capita: migration occurs from regions with low per capita income towards regions with higher per capita income, thus per capita income in in-migration regions would fall while that in out-migration regions would tend to rise, holding all else constant. In this study, we first test for absolute convergence across 67 Turkish provinces for 1975-2000 using non-linear least squares method. We find that there occurs no absolute convergence, meaning that provinces with initial-low-income per capita had no tendency to grow at a faster rate than provinces with initial-higher-income per capita. This result may be due to the fact that there are significant structural differences among provinces. To test this likelihood, regional dummies and sectoral shares in gross provincial product variables (agriculture, industry and services) are added to the convergence regressions. As expected, when we control for regional and sectoral differences across provinces, convergence across provinces occurs. Lastly, in order to assess the contribution of migration to convergence, we include net migration rates as explanatory variables to convergence regressions. We use the Instrumental Variables method in order to control for endogeneity between growth in per capita income and migration. According to our preliminary results, contrary to the predictions of the standard neoclassical theory, for 1975-2000, internal migration is not conducive to faster per capita income convergence across provinces in Turkey. One probable reason is that the marginal returns to capital in most net out-migration provinces and regions are relatively lower than those in the net in-migration provinces and regions in Turkey. Accordingly, the incentives to invest in capital in net-out migration regions may well be less than those in the net in-migration regions. Faced with lower investment in gross capital formation, and thus lower economic growth, net out-migration provinces and regions may not benefit from out-migration in terms of convergence in per capita income.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa06p784.
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria
Web page: http://www.ersa.org
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2007-01-14 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-GEO-2007-01-14 (Economic Geography)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rappaport, Jordan, 2005.
"How does labor mobility affect income convergence?,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 567-581, March.
- Jordan Rappaport, 1999. "How does labor mobility affect income convergence?," Research Working Paper 99-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Jordan M. Rappaport, 2000. "How Does Labor Mobility Affect Income Convergence?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0124, Econometric Society.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991.
"Convergence Across States and Regions,"
629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- Mazumdar, Dipak, 1987. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 28, pages 1097-1128 Elsevier.
- Tugrul Temel & Aysit Tansel & Peter J. Albersen, 1999.
"Convergence and Spatial Patterns in Labor Productivity: Nonparametric Estimations for Turkey,"
9931, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 1999.
- Temel, Tugrul T. & Tansel, Aysit & Albersen, P.J., 1999. "Convergence and Spatial Patterns in Labor Productivity: Nonparametric Estimations for Turkey," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 29(1).
- Munro, John M, 1974. " Migration in Turkey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(4), pages 634-53, July.
- Fatma Dogruel & Suut Dogruel, 2011. "Privatization and regional distribution of manufacturing in Turkey," Working Papers 2011/4, Turkish Economic Association.
- Karaman, Fatma & Dogruel, Fatma, 2011. "Regional convergence in Turkey: the role of government in economic environment augmenting activities," MPRA Paper 34271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2009. "Does migration lead to economic convergence in an enlarged European market?," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 40(4), pages 71-87.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.