IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9307.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implementing Precaution in Benefit-Cost Analysis : The Case of Deep Seabed Mining

Author

Listed:
  • Krutilla,Kerry Mace
  • Good,David Henning
  • Toman,Michael A.
  • Arin,Tijen

Abstract

The cumulative extraction of terrestrial mineral deposits has led the mining industry to begin exploring seabed resources. The prospect of commercialized seabed mining poses major regulatory challenges for the International Seabed Authority and countries with mineral resources in their coastal jurisdictions. The European Union and the World Bank have initiated projects to build capacity to manage seabed mining activities. A particular concern is the nature of the economic evaluation that should be required for the assessment of mining leases. This study reviews the academic literature on economic decision making under deep uncertainty and makes recommendations for incorporating precautionary measures within the benefit-cost analysis of seabed mining operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Krutilla,Kerry Mace & Good,David Henning & Toman,Michael A. & Arin,Tijen, 2020. "Implementing Precaution in Benefit-Cost Analysis : The Case of Deep Seabed Mining," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9307, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/988431593443922675/pdf/Implementing-Precaution-in-Benefit-Cost-Analysis-The-Case-of-Deep-Seabed-Mining.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toman Michael, 2014. "The need for multiple types of information to inform climate change assessment," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 469-485, December.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S., 2005. "Sunk Costs and Real Options in Antitrust," Working papers 18233, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    3. Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
    4. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 4, pages 76-84, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Richard T. Woodward & Richard C. Bishop, 1997. "How to Decide When Experts Disagree: Uncertainty-Based Choice Rules in Environmental Policy," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 73(4), pages 492-507.
    6. Sussman, Fran & Weaver, Christopher P. & Grambsch, Anne, 2014. "Challenges in applying the paradigm of welfare economics to climate change," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 347-376, December.
    7. John D. Graham, 2001. "Decision-analytic refinements of the precautionary principle," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 127-141, April.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Scott Farrow, 2004. "Using Risk Assessment, Benefit‐Cost Analysis, and Real Options to Implement a Precautionary Principle," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(3), pages 727-735, June.
    10. Kerry Krutilla & John D. Graham, 2012. "Are Green Vehicles Worth the Extra Cost? The Case of Diesel‐Electric Hybrid Technology for Urban Delivery Vehicles," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 501-532, June.
    11. Richard C. Bishop, 1978. "Endangered Species and Uncertainty: The Economics of a Safe Minimum Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(1), pages 10-18.
    12. Gollier, Christian & Treich, Nicolas, 2003. "Decision-Making under Scientific Uncertainty: The Economics of the Precautionary Principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 77-103, August.
    13. Hausman, Jerry & Myers, Stewart, 2002. "Regulating the United States Railroads: The Effects of Sunk Costs and Asymmetric Risk," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 287-310, November.
    14. Michael A. Toman, 1994. "Economics and "Sustainability": Balancing Trade-Offs and Imperatives," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 70(4), pages 399-413.
    15. Cindy Lee Van Dover, 2011. "Tighten regulations on deep-sea mining," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7332), pages 31-33, February.
    16. Crépin, Anne-Sophie & Biggs, Reinette & Polasky, Stephen & Troell, Max & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2012. "Regime shifts and management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 15-22.
    17. Lempert, Robert J., 2014. "Embedding (some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 487-514, December.
    18. Palmini, Dennis, 1999. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and the game theoretic foundations of the safe minimum standard: a reassessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 463-472, June.
    19. Paul D. Childs & Alexander J. Triantis, 1999. "Dynamic R&D Investment Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1359-1377, October.
    20. Hallegatte, Stephane & Shah, Ankur & Lempert, Robert & Brown, Casey & Gill, Stuart, 2012. "Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6193, The World Bank.
    21. World Bank, 2017. "Precautionary Management of Deep Sea Minerals," World Bank Publications - Reports 28298, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grijalva, Therese & Berrens, Robert P. & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2011. "Species preservation versus development: An experimental investigation under uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(5), pages 995-1005, March.
    2. Toman Michael, 2014. "The need for multiple types of information to inform climate change assessment," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 469-485, December.
    3. Liqun Liu & Andrew J. Rettenmaier & Thomas R. Saving, 2019. "Staying the Course or Rolling the Dice: Time Horizon’s Effect on the Propensity to Take Risk," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 66-85.
    4. Dittrich, Ruth & Wreford, Anita & Moran, Dominic, 2016. "A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: Are robust methods the way forward?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 79-89.
    5. Aldred, Jonathan, 2013. "Justifying precautionary policies: Incommensurability and uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 132-140.
    6. Kjell Hausken, 2019. "Principal–Agent Theory, Game Theory, and the Precautionary Principle," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 105-127, June.
    7. Michael Margolis & Eric Nævdal, 2008. "Safe Minimum Standards in Dynamic Resource Problems: Conditions for Living on the Edge of Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 401-423, July.
    8. W. Botzen & Jeroen Bergh, 2014. "Specifications of Social Welfare in Economic Studies of Climate Policy: Overview of Criteria and Related Policy Insights," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 1-33, May.
    9. Jacob LaRiviere & David Kling & James N Sanchirico & Charles Sims & Michael Springborn, 2018. "The Treatment of Uncertainty and Learning in the Economics of Natural Resource and Environmental Management," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 92-112.
    10. Charles Sims & David Finnoff & Jason F. Shogren, 2018. "Taking One for the Team: Is Collective Action More Responsive to Ecological Change?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 589-615, July.
    11. Randall, Alan, 2009. "We Already Have Risk Management - Do We Really Need the Precautionary Principle?," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 3(1), pages 39-74, August.
    12. Edouard Civel & Marc Baudry, 2018. "The Fate of Inventions. What can we learn from Bayesian learning in strategic options model of adoption ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-47, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Meglena Jeleva & Stéphane Rossignol, 2019. "Optimists, Pessimists, and the Precautionary Principle," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 367-396, September.
    14. Takao Asano, 2010. "Precautionary Principle and the Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy Under Ambiguity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 173-196, October.
    15. Caroline Orset, 2014. "Innovation and the precautionary principle," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(8), pages 780-801, November.
    16. Edwin Michael & Mwele N Malecela & Mihail Zervos & James W Kazura, 2008. "Global Eradication of Lymphatic Filariasis: The Value of Chronic Disease Control in Parasite Elimination Programmes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(8), pages 1-9, August.
    17. Turvey, Calum G. & Mojduszka, Eliza M., 2005. "The Precautionary Principle and the law of unintended consequences," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 145-161, April.
    18. Kimberly Burnett & James Roumasset & Yacov Tsur, 2007. "Delaying the Catastrophic Arrival of the Brown Tree Snake to Hawaii," Working Papers 200715, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    19. Fidel Gonzalez, 2008. "Precautionary Principle and Robustness for a Stock Pollutant with Multiplicative Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 25-46, September.
    20. Michael Toman, 1998. "Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 603-621, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mining&Extractive Industry (Non-Energy); Global Environment; Hydrology; International Trade and Trade Rules;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.