Delaying the Catastrophic Arrival of the Brown Tree Snake to Hawaii
AbstractThis paper develops a two-stage model for the optimal management of a potential invasive species. The arrival of an invasive species is modeled as an irreversible event with an uncertain arrival time. The model is solved in two stages, beginning with the post-invasion stage. In this stage, we assume perfect certainty regarding population size and arrivals. The loss-minimizing paths of prevention and control are identified, resulting in a minimized present value penalty associated with the invasion. After calculating this penalty, we analyze the pre-invasion stage and solve for the level of prevention expenditures that will minimize expected total cost. For the case of the Brown Tree Snake potentially invading Hawaii, we find that under a regime of precommitment, pre-invasion expenditures on prevention should be approximately $3.2 million today, decreasing every year until invasion. However, if the planner is permitted to re-evaluate the threat following a non-event, prevention will be lower ($2.96 million a year) and constant until invasion. Once invasion occurs, optimal management requires lower annual expenditures on prevention ($3.1 million) but requires $1.6 million to be spent on control annually to keep the population at its steady state level.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200715.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 07 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
- Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
- Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gollier, Christian & Treich, Nicolas, 2003. " Decision-Making under Scientific Uncertainty: The Economics of the Precautionary Principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 77-103, August.
- Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May.
- Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1999.
"The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 339-377, December.
- Andrew B. Abel & Janice B. Eberly, . "The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 21-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 5363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mash, Richard, 1999. "Irreversible investment and the expected capital stock with stationary uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 193-196, August.
- Gollier, Christian & Jullien, Bruno & Treich, Nicolas, 2000.
"Scientific progress and irreversibility: an economic interpretation of the 'Precautionary Principle',"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 229-253, February.
- Gollier & Jullien & Treich, 2000. "Scientific progress and irreversibility : an economic interpretation of the Precautionary principle," Working Papers 156240, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
- Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Fundamental irreversibilities in stock externalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-233, May.
- Epstein, Larry G, 1980. "Decision Making and the Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-83, June.
- Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
- Fisher, Anthony C. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 1987. "Quasi-option value: Some misconceptions dispelled," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 183-190, June.
- Knowler, Duncan & Barbier, Edward, 2005. "Importing exotic plants and the risk of invasion: are market-based instruments adequate?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 341-354, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web Technician).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.