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Decision-Making under Scientific Uncertainty: The Economics of the Precautionary Principle

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Author Info
 Gollier, Christian
Treich, Nicolas

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Abstract

The Precautionary Principle has provided the foundations for building a new risk regulatory pattern under scientific uncertainty. This paper investigates how classical economic theory may, or may not, justify the Precautionary Principle. It examines the link between irreversibility, the prospect of increasing information over time and risk management. In doing so, it brings closer the notion of option value to that of precaution. Using a general modelling framework, it identifies the conditions so that the Precautionary Principle is an efficient economic guideline. It also explains why precautionary policies are not likely to emerge in a competitive economy or in the presence of a global pollution problem. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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File URL: http://journals.kluweronline.com/issn/0895-5646/contents
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 27 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 77-103
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:27:y:2003:i:1:p:77-103

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

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  1. Kimberly Burnett & James Roumasset & Yacov Tsur, 2007. "Delaying the Catastrophic Arrival of the Brown Tree Snake to Hawaii," Working Papers 200715, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Olivier Godard, 2005. "The precautionary principle. Between social norms and economic constructs," Working Papers hal-00243008_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  3. Summers, Lawrence & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2008. "Policymaking for Posterity," Working Paper Series rwp08-040, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Iulie Aslaksen, Bent Natvig and Inger Nordal, 2004. "Environmental risk and the precautionary principle. “Late lessons from early warnings” applied to genetically modified plants," Discussion Papers 398, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  5. repec:mop:credwp:05.07.59 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Marcello Basili & Mauriziop Franzini, 2005. "The Avian Flu Disease: A Case of Precautionary Failure," Department of Economics University of Siena 454, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peterson, Deborah, 2006. "Precaution: principles and practice in Australian environmental and natural resource management," Conference/Workshop Proceedings 31906, Productivity Commission. [Downloadable!]
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