Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia
AbstractThe authors use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks: (i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Rice farm households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks at the expense of lower nonfood expenditures per capita. The authors use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the welfare impact of this type of shock. Access to credit and public works projects in communities were among the programs with the strongest moderating effects. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5615.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Science of Climate Change; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Housing&Human Habitats; Rural Poverty Reduction; Regional Economic Development;
Other versions of this item:
- Emmanuel Skoufias & Roy S. Katayama & B. Essama-Nssah, 2012. "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 351-368, December.
- NEP-AGR-2011-04-09 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2011-04-09 (Development)
- NEP-ENV-2011-04-09 (Environmental Economics)
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- Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2004. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty : a synthesis of the evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico and Russia," Social Protection Discussion Papers 29141, The World Bank.
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- Noy, Ilan & Karim, Azreen, 2013. "Poverty, inequality and natural disasters – A survey," Working Paper Series 2974, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
- World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13039, The World Bank.
- Emmanuel Skoufias & Mariano Rabassa & Sergio Olivieri & Milan Brahmbhatt, 2011.
"The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change,"
World Bank Other Operational Studies
10102, The World Bank.
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