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Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia

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  • Skoufias, Emmanuel
  • Essama-Nssah, B.
  • Katayama, Roy S.

Abstract

The authors use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks: (i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Rice farm households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks at the expense of lower nonfood expenditures per capita. The authors use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the welfare impact of this type of shock. Access to credit and public works projects in communities were among the programs with the strongest moderating effects. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5615.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5615

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Related research

Keywords: Science of Climate Change; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Housing&Human Habitats; Rural Poverty Reduction; Regional Economic Development;

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References

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  1. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
  2. Sumarto, Sudarno & Suryahadi, Asep & Pritchett, Lant, 2003. "Safety Nets or Safety Ropes? Dynamic Benefit Incidence of Two Crisis Programs in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1257-1277, July.
  3. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2004. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty : a synthesis of the evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico and Russia," Social Protection Discussion Papers 29141, The World Bank.
  4. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection Discussion Papers 29138, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13039, The World Bank.
  2. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2014. "Poverty and natural disasters: A meta-analysis," Working Paper Series 3234, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Emmanuel Skoufias & Mariano Rabassa & Sergio Olivieri & Milan Brahmbhatt, 2011. "The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10102, The World Bank.
  5. Noy, Ilan & Karim, Azreen, 2013. "Poverty, inequality and natural disasters – A survey," Working Paper Series 2974, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.

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