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Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Rosamond Naylor
  • Walter Falcon
  • Nikolas Wada
  • Daniel Rochberg

Abstract

Despite the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Nino years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Nino years than La Nina years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosamond Naylor & Walter Falcon & Nikolas Wada & Daniel Rochberg, 2002. "Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 75-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:38:y:2002:i:1:p:75-91
    DOI: 10.1080/000749102753620293
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Pfaff & K. Broad & M. Glantz, 1999. "Who benefits from climate forecasts?," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 645-646, February.
    2. Maamun, M & Suherman, O & Baco, Dj & Dahlan, M & Subandi, 2001. "Impact of Public- and Private- Sector Maize Breeding Research in Asia, 1966-1997/98: Impact of Breeding Research on Maize Production and Distribution in Indonesia," Impact Studies 296891, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Climate change and vulnerability to poverty: an empirical investigation in rural Indonesia," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber & Guanghua Wan (ed.), The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 5, pages 118-146, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Yamauchi, Futoshi & Sumaryanto, Sony & Dewina, Reno, 2010. "Climate Change, Perceptions and the Heterogeneity of Adaptation and Rice Productivity: Evidence from Indonesian Villages," Working Papers 13, JICA Research Institute.
    3. Thiede, Brian C. & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Climate exposures and child undernutrition: Evidence from Indonesia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    4. You, Liangzhi, 2012. "A tale of two countries: Spatial and temporal patterns of rice productivity in China and Brazil," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 690-703.
    5. You, Liangzhi & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Fang, Cheng & Wood, Stanley, 2005. "Impact of global warming on Chinese wheat productivity:," EPTD discussion papers 143, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Publications - Reports 13039, The World Bank Group.
    7. Edwards, Ryan B. & Naylor, Rosamond L. & Higgins, Matthew M. & Falcon, Walter P., 2020. "Causes of Indonesia’s forest fires," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Yayan Apriyana & Elza Surmaini & Woro Estiningtyas & Aris Pramudia & Fadhlullah Ramadhani & Suciantini Suciantini & Erni Susanti & Rima Purnamayani & Haris Syahbuddin, 2021. "The Integrated Cropping Calendar Information System: A Coping Mechanism to Climate Variability for Sustainable Agriculture in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Jonatan A. Lassa & Allen Yu-Hung Lai & Tian Goh, 2016. "Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 19-33, November.
    10. Emmanuel Skoufias & Roy S. Katayama & B. Essama-Nssah, 2012. "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 351-368, December.
    11. World Bank, 2010. "Climate Change and Economic Policies in APEC Economies : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 2948, The World Bank Group.

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