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Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security

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  • Walter Falcon
  • Rosamond Naylor
  • Whitney Smith
  • Marshall Burke
  • Ellen McCullough

Abstract

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an 'ENSO summit' each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Falcon & Rosamond Naylor & Whitney Smith & Marshall Burke & Ellen McCullough, 2004. "Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 355-377.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:40:y:2004:i:3:p:355-377
    DOI: 10.1080/0007491042000231520
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Pfaff & K. Broad & M. Glantz, 1999. "Who benefits from climate forecasts?," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 645-646, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andung Bayu Sekaranom & Emilya Nurjani & Fitria Nucifera, 2021. "Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation in Kebumen, Central Java, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
    3. de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Mina, Christian D. & Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Reyes, Celia M., 2010. "Incorporating Regional Rice Production Models in a Simulation Model of Rice Importation: a Discrete Stochastic Programming Approach," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2009 Vol. XXXVI No. 1, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. B. Bala & M. Hossain, 2010. "Modeling of food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 511-529, August.
    5. de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Mina, Christian D. & Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Incorporating Regional Rice Production Models in Rice Importation Simulation Model: a Stochastic Programming Approach," Discussion Papers DP 2009-28, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Emmanuel Skoufias & Roy S. Katayama & B. Essama-Nssah, 2012. "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 351-368, December.
    7. C. Peter Timmer, 2014. "Food Security in Asia and the Pacific: The Rapidly Changing Role of Rice," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 73-90, January.
    8. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo.
    9. Timmer, C. Peter, 2013. "Coping with Climate Change: A Food Policy Approach," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152188, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    10. Sellers, Samuel & Gray, Clark, 2019. "Climate shocks constrain human fertility in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 357-369.
    11. Villoria, Nelson B. & Delgado, Michael, 2017. "Worldwide Crop Supply Responses to El Niño Southern Oscillation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258564, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Walter Falcon & Gracia Hadiwidjaja & Ryan Edwards & Matthew Higgins & Rosamond Naylor & Sudarno Sumarto, 2022. "Using Conditional Cash Payments to Prevent Land-Clearing Fires: Cautionary Findings from Indonesia," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    13. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Publications - Reports 13039, The World Bank Group.
    14. Keil, Alwin & Teufel, Nils & Gunawan, Dodo & Leemhuis, Constanze, 2007. "Mitigating the impact of El Nino-related drought on smallholder farmers in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia: An interdisciplinary modelling approach combining linear programming with stochastic simulation," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7942, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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