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Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security

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  • Walter Falcon
  • Rosamond Naylor
  • Whitney Smith
  • Marshall Burke
  • Ellen McCullough
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    Abstract

    El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an 'ENSO summit' each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 355-377

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:40:y:2004:i:3:p:355-377

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CBIE20

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    Cited by:
    1. Timmer, C. Peter, 2013. "Coping with Climate Change: A Food Policy Approach," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 152188, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. B. Bala & M. Hossain, 2010. "Modeling of food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 511-529, August.
    4. Keil, Alwin & Teufel, Nils & Gunawan, Dodo & Leemhuis, Constanze, 2007. "Mitigating the impact of El Nino-related drought on smallholder farmers in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia: An interdisciplinary modelling approach combining linear programming with stochastic simulation," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France, European Association of Agricultural Economists 7942, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
    6. de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Mina, Christian D. & Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Incorporating Regional Rice Production Models in Rice Importation Simulation Model: a Stochastic Programming Approach," Discussion Papers DP 2009-28, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

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