Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia
AbstractIn rural Indonesia, around 60 percent of workers engage in agriculture and face regular climatic shocks that may threaten their crop production, household income, and human capital investments. Little is known about households’ ability to maintain consumption in response to these shocks. This paper uses both longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional data to examine the extent to which farm profits and household consumption are reduced by delayed monsoon onset, an important determinant of rice production in Indonesia. It also investigates whether poor households are more vulnerable to delayed onset. Overall, delayed onset has minor effects on rural households’ profit and consumption. For poor households, defined as those with average per capita consumption in the lowest quintile, delayed onset the previous year is associated with a 13 percent decline in per capita consumption. Most of this decline is due to an increase in household size, however, and delayed onset two years ago is positively correlated with consumption. The findings suggest that poor households experience greater volatility but no lasting reduction in consumption following delayed monsoon onset.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5070.
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Rural Poverty Reduction; Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping; Consumption; Regional Economic Development;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2009-10-24 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2009-10-24 (Development)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dercon, Stefan, 2004.
"Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 309-329, August.
- Stefan Dercon, 2004. "Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Development and Comp Systems 0409036, EconWPA.
- Stefan Dercon, 2003. "Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Stefan Dercon, 2003. "Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2003-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Walter Falcon & Rosamond Naylor & Whitney Smith & Marshall Burke & Ellen McCullough, 2004. "Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 355-377.
- Harounan Kazianga & Christopher Udry, 2004.
"Consumption Smoothing? Livestock, Insurance and Drought in Rural Burkina Faso,"
898, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
- Beegle, Kathleen & Dehejia, Rajeev H. & Gatti, Roberta & Krutikova, Sofya, 2008. "The consequences of child labor : evidence from longitudinal data in rural Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4677, The World Bank.
- Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith & Duncan Thomas, 2004.
"Economic Shocks, Wealth and Welfare,"
Labor and Demography
- Townsend, R.M., 1991.
"Risk and Insurance in Village India,"
University of Chicago - Economics Research Center
91-3, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Robert M. Townsend, . "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 91-3a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
- Morduch, J., 1995.
"Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing,"
512, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1727, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- David Newhouse, 2005. "The Persistence of Income Shocks: Evidence from Rural Indonesia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 415-433, 08.
- Jacoby, Hanan G & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 1997. "Risk, Financial Markets, and Human Capital in a Developing Country," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 311-35, July.
- Kochar, Anjini, 1997. "An empirical investigation of rationing constraints in rural credit markets in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 339-371, August.
- Sharon L. Maccini & Dean Yang, 2008.
"Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall,"
NBER Working Papers
14031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-26, June.
- Cameron, L. & Worswick, C., 1998.
"Education Expenditure Responses to Crop Loss in Indonesia: A Gender Bias,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
636, The University of Melbourne.
- Cameron, Lisa A & Worswick, Christopher, 2001. "Education Expenditure Responses to Crop Loss in Indonesia: A Gender Bias," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 351-63, January.
- Hanan G. Jacoby & Emmanuel Skoufias, 1998. "Testing Theories of Consumption Behavior Using Information on Aggregate Shocks: Income Seasonality and Rainfall in Rural India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 1-14.
- Skoufias, Emmanuel & Essama-Nssah, B. & Katayama, Roy S., 2011.
"Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
5615, The World Bank.
- Emmanuel Skoufias & Roy S. Katayama & B. Essama-Nssah, 2012. "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 351-368, December.
- World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13039, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.