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Macro-Micro Feedback Links Of Irrigation Water Management In Turkey

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  • Cakmak, Erol H.

    ()
    (The World Bank)

  • Dudu, Hasan

    (The World Bank)

  • Saracoglu, Sirin

    (The World Bank)

  • Diao, Xinshen

    (IFPRI)

  • Roe, Terry

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Tsur, Yacov

    (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Abstract

Agricultural production is heavily dependent on water availability in Turkey, where half the crop production relies on irrigation. Irrigated agriculture consumes about 75 percent of total water used, which is about 30 percent of renewable water availability. This study analyzes the likely effects of increased competition for water resources and changes in the Turkish economy. The analysis uses an economy-wide Walrasian Computable General Equilibrium model with a detailed account of the agricultural sector. The study investigated the economy-wide effects of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate change, along with the impact of the domestic reallocation of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. It was also recognized that because of spatial heterogeneity of the climate, the simulated scenarios have differential impact on the agricultural production and hence on the allocation of factors of production including water. The greatest effects on major macroeconomic indicators occur in the climate change simulations. As a result of the transfer of water from rural to urban areas, overall production of all crops declines. Although production on rainfed land increases, production on irrigated land declines, most notably the production of maize and fruits. The decrease in agricultural production, coupled with the domestic price increase, is further reflected in net trade. Agricultural imports increase with a greater decline in agricultural exports.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4781.

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Length: 81 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4781

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Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium; Feedback links; Irrigation Water; Turkey;

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References

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  1. Dwyer, Gavan & Loke, Paul & Appels, David & Stone, Susan F. & Peterson, Deborah C., 2005. "Integrating rural and urban water markets in south east Australia: Preliminary analysis," Conference/Workshop Proceedings, Productivity Commission 31909, Productivity Commission.
  2. Goodman, D. Jay, 2000. "More Reservoirs Or Transfers? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Of Projected Water Shortages In The Arkansas River Basin," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
  3. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2006.154, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Deborah Peterson & Gavan Dwyer & David Appels & Jane Fry, 2005. "Water Trade in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages S115-S127, 08.
  5. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "A Calibration Method For Agricultural Economic Production Models," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 147-159.
  6. Esther Velázquez & M. Alejandro Cardenete & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2007. "Water price and water reallocation in Andalusia. A computable general equilibrium approach," Working Papers 07.04, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Dinar, Ariel, 2012. "Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6068, The World Bank.

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