Interest rates, growth, and external debt : the macroeconomic impact of Mexico's Brady deal
AbstractInterest rates fell sharply after Mexico's Brady deal, and private investment and growth recovered. The authors show that the main benefit of debt relief was not to lower expected payments but to reduce uncertainty. Reduced uncertainty was found to be the dominant factor in explaining the positive macroeconomic response (largely because of its favorable effect on exchange rate crises). Econometrically, they find that the variability of the future net transfer had a significant impact but the average of the future net transfer itself did not. Their results confirm that debt reduction has a positive macroeconomic effect, but reject the debt overhang hypothesis (the benefits to growth of a reduced tax burden) as the dominant factor. Their main conclusion: debt reduction can have a much greater impact than the magnitude of relief, coupled with standard growth models, would suggest. The secondary effects on private investment of reduced uncertainty about government policy is likely to be more important than the direct amount of debt reduction itself. But private investment is unlikely to increase if uncertainty remains about future domestic macroeconomic stability and reform. The debt package would not have succeeded if the government had not put through a successful domestic reform program before the debt relief package.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1147.
Date of creation: 30 Jun 1993
Date of revision:
Environmental Economics&Policies; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Strategic Debt Management; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform;
Other versions of this item:
- Claessens, Stijn & Oks, Danel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1994. "Interest Rates, Growth and External Debt: The Macroeconomic Impact of Mexico's Brady Deal," CEPR Discussion Papers 904, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. Bradford De Long and Barry Eichengreen., 1991.
"The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program,"
Economics Working Papers
91-184, University of California at Berkeley.
- DeLong, J. Bradford & Eichengreen, Barry, 1991. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3b1108bj, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- J. Bradford De Long & Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Programme," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _109, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- J. Bradford De Long & Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program," NBER Working Papers 3899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- DeLong, J Bradford & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program," CEPR Discussion Papers 634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1989.
"Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management,"
NBER Working Papers
2926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," Working Papers 73, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Krugman, Paul, 1988.
"Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
- Barbone, Luca & Forni, Lorenzo, 1997. "Are markets learning? : behavior in the secondary market for Brady bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1734, The World Bank.
- Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995.
NBER Working Papers
5131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eaton, J. & Fernandez, R., 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Papers 37, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 59, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- de Aghion, Beatriz Armendariz & de Hinestrosa, Patricia Armendariz, 1995. "Debt relief, growth and price stability in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 135-149, October.
- Bowe, M. & Dean, J.W., 1997. "Has the Market Solved the Sovereign-Debt Crisis?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 83, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Klimenko, Mikhail M., 2002. "Trade interdependence, the international financial institutions, and the recent evolution of sovereign-debt renegotiations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 177-209, October.
- Canuto, Otaviano & Pinto, Brian & Prasad, Mona, 2012. "Orderly sovereign debt restructuring : missing in action !," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6054, The World Bank.
- Claessens, Stijn & Detragiache, Enrica & Kanbur, Ravi & Wickham, Peter, 1996. "Analytical aspects of the debt problems of heavily indebted poor countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1618, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.