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Managing the Public Debt in Fiscal Stabilizations: the Evidence

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  • Alessandro Missale
  • Francesco Giavazzi
  • Pierpaolo Benigno

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the behavior of public debt managers during fiscal stabilizations in OECD countries over the last two decades. We find that debt maturity tends to lengthen the more credible is the program, the lower is the long-term interest rate and the higher is the volatility of short-term interest rates. We show that this debt issuing strategy is consistent with optimal debt management if information bewteen the government and private investors is asymmetric, as it is usually the case at the outset of a stabilization attempt when private investors may lack full confidence in the announced budget cuts.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 118.

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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:118

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  1. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 2926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Manmohan S. Kumar & Pablo Emilio Guidotti, 1991. "Domestic Public Debt of Externally Indebted Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 80, International Monetary Fund.
  3. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Alesina, Alberto F & Prati, Alessandro & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and a Case Study of Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1991. "Credibility and Stabilization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 837-50, August.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
  8. Alessandro Missale & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991. "The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity," NBER Working Papers 3944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "A positive theory of foreign currency debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 273-292, November.
  10. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-30, December.
  11. Bohn, Henning, 1988. "Why do we have nominal government debt?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 127-140, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. "Is private consumption growth higher (lower) during periods of fiscal contractions (expansions)?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 17-39, March.
  2. Francesco Drudi & Alessandro Prati, 1998. "Signaling Fiscal Regime Sustainability," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 335, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Paola Veroni, 2001. "Dix ans de politique budgétaire au service de l’euro : l’exemple italien," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2545, Sciences Po.
  4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2545 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Marchesi, S., 2000. "Buybacks of Domestic Debt in Public Debt Management," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 573, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  6. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Silvia Marchesi, 2006. "Buybacks of domestic debt in public debt management," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 379-400.
  8. Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank.

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