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Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict

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  • Kaplan,Oliver Ross

Abstract

Violence during armed conflict has been explained using a variety of theories, includingrationality, organizational dynamics, and personal and collective grievances. These explanations overlook thesignificance of so-called “irrational” belief systems that are found in different countries among both combatants andthe general population. Conflict-related religious and superstitious beliefs can shape civilians’ faith, resolve,optimism, social ties, and therefore levels of risk-acceptance and decisions to displace from theircommunities. This study explores new survey and interview data from Colombia from 2016–2019 and shows that asubstantial share of the conflict-affected population holds a variety of conflict-related superstitious beliefs. Thedeterminants of these beliefs are analyzed and impacts assessed on three key displacement-related outcomes: Howlikely are individuals to displace if their town is attacked; how they cope with the difficulties of daily lifein conflict zones (resilience); and would they recommend that displaced relatives return home. Regression analysis,statistical matching techniques, and interview and focus group accounts indicate how superstitions and religiousbeliefs and practices affect these outcomes. The paper concludes with implications for the field of conflictstudies, as existing theories of conflict and violence may be based on incomplete foundations and inaccurate models of decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaplan,Oliver Ross, 2022. "Superstitions and Civilian Displacement : Evidence from the Colombian Conflict," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10023, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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