IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vig/wpaper/1404.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelización econométrica de la demanda de turistas británicos a España

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Álvarez-Díaz
  • Manuel González-Gómez
  • María Soledad Otero-Giráldez
  • Ana Belén Trigo Iglesias

Abstract

A pesar de la importancia del turismo internacional para la economía española, este sector ha sido muy poco estudiado. Es por esta razón que el principal objetivo de nuestro estudio es el de construir un modelo econométrico robusto que nos permita (i) conocer las variables más importantes que expliquen la demanda de turistas británicos a España, y (ii) cuantificar los impactos de estas variables sobre la demanda. Para este propósito seguimos un procedimiento de modelización econométrica basado en tres etapas. En la primera de ellas investigamos si existe una relación a largo plazo entre la demanda de turismo y un conjunto de variables explicativas económicas. En segundo lugar, modelizamos esta relación a largo plazo en donde también incluimos los efectos de algunos eventos especiales. Finalmente, ofrecemos una estimación puntual y por intervalo de los impactos de estos efectos sobre el turismo británico. La estimación por intervalo fue llevada a cabo utilizando un método eficiente denominado bootstrapping. ABSTRACT In spite of the importance of international tourism for the Spanish economy, this sector has been scarcely studied. It is for this reason that this study aims to construct a robust econometric model that allows us (i) to know the most important variables to explain the British demand for tourism to Spain, and (ii) to quantify the impacts of these variables on the demand. For this purpose, we follow a three-step modeling procedure. First, we find out if there is a long-run relationship between tourism demand and a set of economic explanatory variables. Second, we model such long-run relationship where we include the effect of some special events. Third, we not only study the effect of these variables, but also we offer a point and interval estimation of their effects. The interval estimation is done by using an efficient method called bootstrapping.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez & Ana Belén Trigo Iglesias, 2014. "Modelización econométrica de la demanda de turistas británicos a España," Working Papers 1404, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
    • Handle: RePEc:vig:wpaper:1404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://webx06.webs8.uvigo.es/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/wp1404.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Vita, Glauco & Abbott, Andrew, 2002. "Are saving and investment cointegrated? An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 293-299, October.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. James Laurenceson & Joseph C.H. Chai, 2003. "Financial Reform and Economic Development in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2714.
    5. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
    6. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 2000. "An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-624.
    7. Koon Nam Henry Lee, 2011. "Estimating demand elasticities for intra-regional tourist arrivals to Hong Kong - the 'bounds' testing approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1645-1654.
    8. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & González-Gómez, Manuel, 2012. "Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1301-1308.
    2. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, 2016. "La modelización de la demanda de turismo de economías emergentes: el caso de la llegada de turistas rusos a España," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 39(110), pages 112-125, Mayo.
    3. González-Gómez, Manuel & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad, 2013. "Estimating the long-run impact of forest fires on the eucalyptus timber supply in Galicia, Spain," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 149-161.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Does Corruption Increase Financial Development? A Time Series Analysis in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(10), pages 113-124, October.
    5. Ketenci, Natalya, 2009. "The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destination," MPRA Paper 86602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    7. Amarjit Singh Sidhu & Neha Verma, 2017. "Unveiling the Factors Affecting Profitability of Reinsurance Companies," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 42(3), pages 190-204, August.
    8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mete Feridun, 2012. "Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1583-1599, August.
    9. Biru Paul & Md. Uddin & Abdullah Noman, 2011. "Remittances and output in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 58(2), pages 229-242, June.
    10. Ahmed Raza ul MUSTAFA* & Mohammad NISHAT**, 2017. "ROLE OF SOCIAL PROTECTION IN POVERTY REDUCTION IN PAKISTAN: A Quantitative Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 67-88.
    11. Ferda Halicioglu, 2010. "An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 83-97, March.
    12. Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2013. "Disaggregated Import Demand Function: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T. & Soytas, Ugur, 2008. "The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: An ARDL approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2302-2313, September.
    14. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
    15. Esin Cakan, 2018. "Impact of Financial and Trade Openness on Financial Development in Emerging Market Economies: The Case of Turkey," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 9(4), pages 71-80, March.
    16. Abdul Karim, Bakri & Abdul Majid, M. Shabri & Abdul Karim, Samsul Ariffin, 2009. "Financial Integration between Indonesia and Its Major Trading Partners," MPRA Paper 17277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine, 2014. "The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 33-41.
    18. Ghazi Al-Assaf & Bashier Al-Abdulrazag, 2015. "The Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for Jordan: A Bounds Testing Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 199-211.
    19. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sari, Ramazan, 2011. "Financial CDS, stock market and interest rates: Which drives which?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 257-276.
    20. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelización de la Demanda Turística; Modelo ARDL; Bootstrap; Tourism Demand Modelling; ARDL Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vig:wpaper:1404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Departamento de Economía Aplicada (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deviges.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.