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A Survival Analysis of the Approval of U.S. Patent Applications

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Abstract

We model the length of time that it takes for a patent application to be granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, conditional on the patent actually being awarded eventually. Survival analysis is applied and both the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier and parametric accelerated failure time models are used to analyze the data. We find that the number of claims a patent makes, the number of citations a patent makes, the patent’s technological category, and the type of applicant all have significant effects on the duration that a patent is under consideration. A log-normal survival model is the preferred parametric specification, and the results suggest that the hazard function is non-monotonic over time.

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File URL: http://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/assets/docs/econometrics/ewp0707.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 0707.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 24 Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0707

Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
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Keywords: Patents; research and development; survival analysis; hazard function;

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  1. Kennan, John, 1985. "The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 5-28, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Gupeng, Zhang & Xiangdong, Chen, 2012. "The value of invention patents in China: Country origin and technology field differences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 357-370.

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