John Ryan () (European Business School, Regent’s College)
Abstract
This paper is aimed at analysing the decision of the Chinese central bank to reform the exchange rate of the national currency and to gauge the effects of this change in regime on the Chinese economy and the world currency markets. Although many nations have been largely disappointed by the relatively small revaluation of 2%, it will be argued that moving away from the dollar-peg is a step in the right direction in moving to a floating exchange rate, and the reform should be expected to occur in two-stages over a longer time frame The paper focuses on those studies attempting to estimate the under-valuation of the Renminbi and the effects of the change in policy. To enable the reader to understand the degree of misalignment of the. Renminbi this paper will examine various factors that determine whether the currency is undervalued. This will then allow the review of the policy options available to the central bank for facilitating an appreciation and the potential effects of a regime change will be reported. The expected outcomes on the currencies, US treasuries and trade deficit will also be analysed and the study will find that, post-revaluation, the dollar depreciates, the Yen moves in line with the Renminbi and the Euro strengthens, as was expected. The implications for the U.S. treasury market, after a move to a currency basket, is that China will reduce their dollar holdings by selling treasuries, however the region will still remain a net-buyer.
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
2006_51.
Find related papers by JEL classification: D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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