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Time Delay and Noise Explaining Cyclical Fluctuations in Prices of Commodities

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Abstract

This paper suggests to model jointly time delay and random effects in economics and finance. It proposes to explain the random and often cyclical fluctuations in commodity prices as a consequence of the interplay between external noise and time delays caused by the time between initiation of production and delivery. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic delay differential equation. The typical behavior of a commodity price index under this model will be discussed. Methods for parameter estimation and the evaluation of functionals will be proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Uwe Küchler & Eckhard Platen, 2007. "Time Delay and Noise Explaining Cyclical Fluctuations in Prices of Commodities," Research Paper Series 195, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:195
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    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/qfr-archive-02/QFR-rp195.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Küchler, Uwe & Platen, Eckhard, 2000. "Strong discrete time approximation of stochastic differential equations with time delay," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 189-205.
    2. Küchler, Uwe & Platen, Eckhard, 2002. "Weak discrete time approximation of stochastic differential equations with time delay," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 497-507.
    3. Mackey, Michael C., 1989. "Commodity price fluctuations: Price dependent delays and nonlinearities as explanatory factors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 497-509, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Xue-Zhong & Zheng, Min, 2010. "Dynamics of moving average rules in a continuous-time financial market model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 615-634, December.
    2. David R. Banos & Giulia Di Nunno & Frank Proske, 2013. "Sensitivity analysis in a market with memory," Papers 1312.5116, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    3. Orimar Sauri, 2024. "Asymptotic Error Distribution of the Euler Scheme for Fractional Stochastic Delay Differential Equations with Additive Noise," Papers 2402.08513, arXiv.org.
    4. Cordoni, Francesco & Di Persio, Luca & Maticiuc, Lucian & Zălinescu, Adrian, 2020. "A stochastic approach to path-dependent nonlinear Kolmogorov equations via BSDEs with time-delayed generators and applications to finance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 1669-1712.
    5. Yan, Tingjin & Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2023. "Portfolio liquidation with delayed information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; stochastic delay differential equation; cyclical behavior; scenario simulation; parameter estimation; autocorrelation function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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