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A Nonlinear Cobweb Model of Agricultural Commodity Price Fluctuations

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Author Info
Sophie Mitra (Fordham University, Department of Economics)
Jean-Marc Boussard (Institut National de Recherche en Agronomie (INRA))

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Abstract

Recent developments in world food markets stress the importance of identifying the sources of food price volatility. This paper develops a nonlinear Cobweb model with endogenous volatility which accounts for several characteristics of agricultural commodity markets (seasonality, storage) and leads to price series with positive skewness and autocorrelation, as in actual commodity prices. Practical consequences may imply a rethinking of the current methods of world food market regulation.

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Paper provided by Fordham University, Department of Economics in its series Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series with number dp2008-11.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:frd:wpaper:dp2008-11

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Related research
Keywords: Agricultural prices; nonlinear Cobweb model; endogenous fluctuations; storage;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Martin Ravallion, 1997. "Famines and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1205-1242, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990. "On The Behavior of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Mackey, Michael C., 1989. "Commodity price fluctuations: Price dependent delays and nonlinearities as explanatory factors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 497-509, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jean-Marc Boussard, 2005. "Price risk management instruments in agricultural and other unstable markets," Risk and Insurance 0505001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Howroyd, T. D. & Russell, A. M., 1984. "Cournot oligopoly models with time delays," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 97-103, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Boussard, Jean-Marc, 1996. "When risk generates chaos," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 433-446, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. William Brock & Pietro Dindo & Cars Hommes, 2006. "Adaptive rational equilibrium with forward looking agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 2(3-4), pages 241-278. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert W. Fogel, 1989. "Second Thoughts on the European Escape from Hunger: Famines, Price Elasticities, Entitlements, Chronic Malnutrition, and Mortality Rates," NBER Historical Working Papers 0001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hommes, Cars & van Eekelen, Arno, 1996. "Partial equilibrium analysis in a noisy chaotic market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 275-282, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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